$179.92 · vs 21 +5.37% · no stock add
Invest brief · Wednesday Sep 2, 2026 · VOL 43 NO 22
Today = weekday tape on last complete US session Tue Sep 1 (open 7:30am MT). This week = Sunday eIBD, frozen. No invented OHLC or delta.
O’Neil sell: thesis break or lost 21-EMA / failed pivot. A red day is not a sell by itself. Tags are Keep / Trim / Watch / Exit on names already in the book; Buy / Hold / Don’t-buy on new paper ideas. Bullish is not a Buy.
1. Book
Fidelity + second Roth + IB as of Sat Aug 22. Yahoo daily through Tue Sep 1 (TW names: last complete local session). O’Neil: Keep if holding the 21 and thesis intact; Watch if below 21 or 200 EMA not rising. No add on SIVEF MRAAY TYOYY SILC FOCI ShunSin XFAB IQEPF LPKFF SPCX NVT COHR CBRS. APH/GOOG are not owned LEAPS (quotes only); APH Yahoo bar is stale (2026-07-17) — data gap; later APH stock buy still needs a held 21 reclaim + paper.
Keep
| Name | Where / size | Action | Price | Trend | 9 / 21 / 50 / 200 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX | Tax 10 + Roth 15 = 25 | Keep | $142.23 | Hold | +1.4% / +3.7% / +4.2% / n/a | holds 21 (+3.67%), 18d, 200 SMA n/a. Acquisition sleeve. Sep-18 125 CSP stays Keep. No add. |
| IQEPF | IRA 2,000 | Keep | $0.63 | Hold | −1.1% / +0.7% / +5.4% / +60.0% | holds 21, 200 rising, vol 0.51×. Constraint sleeve. No add. |
| 3363.TWO FOCI | IB 90 | Keep | TWD 780 | Bullish | +10.5% / +19.4% / +31.5% / +32.0% | TW session. Holds 21 but extended (+19.4% vs 21) — no add. Book complete. |
| 6451.TW ShunSin | IB 99 | Keep | TWD 500 | Bullish | +9.9% / +12.7% / +9.6% / +45.7% | holds 21 (+12.74%), 200 rising. No new IB size. |
| SPAXX / FDRXX | ~Tax $45.7k + IRA $1.8k + Roth2 $12.6k + HSA FDRXX $0.36k | Keep | cash | — | — | Dry powder. Do not force deploy. Margin debit −$3,250 — do not add margin risk. |
Watch / no add
| Name | Where / size | Action | Price | Trend | 9 / 21 / 50 / 200 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Roth2 4 | Watch | $578.54 | Hold | +1.2% / +0.5% / −2.3% / −6.9% | 1d reclaim of 21 (+0.50%) but 200 EMA not rising — Watch / no add (not Keep). RSI 49.95. |
| SILC | Tax 80 + IRA 60 + Roth 60 + Roth2 10 = 210 | Watch | $40.06 | Hold | −7.9% / −8.1% / −6.6% / +37.6% | Still below 21 $43.61. No add. Covered-call RSI 44.43 — not 70+. |
| INOD | IRA 100 | Watch | $54.64 | Bearish | −6.2% / −10.0% / −16.4% / −10.1% | below 21, 200 not rising. No add. |
| SIVEF | Tax 2,000 | Watch | $2.51 | Hold | −22.0% / −30.4% / −42.0% / n/a | thin OTC. Below 21. No add. |
| MRAAY | Roth 100 | Watch | $22.12 | Hold | −2.5% / −5.5% / −16.5% / +26.4% | below 21. Murata ADR. No add. |
| TYOYY | Tax 100 + Roth 125 | Watch | $14.00 | Hold | −4.1% / −10.6% / −28.1% / +17.9% | below 21. No add. |
| LPKFF | IRA 100 | Watch | $14.99 | Hold | −3.7% / −8.5% / −20.9% / +3.6% | below 21. No add. |
| INTC | Tax 10 | Watch | $88.97 | Hold | −1.8% / −5.1% / −13.6% / +21.4% | below 21. Keep size. No add. |
| NVT | HSA 20 + IB 10 = 30 | Watch | $147.30 | Hold | −4.4% / −6.2% / −7.3% / +9.7% | below 21. No add. No new IB size. |
| VPG | HSA 20 | Watch | $60.45 | Bearish | −6.5% / −15.9% / −36.8% / −10.8% | below 21, 200 not rising. Keep size. |
| CBRS | IRA 5 + IB 3 = 8 | Watch | $172.62 | Hold | −8.4% / −13.5% / −14.9% / n/a | below 21. No add. |
| COHR | Roth 5 | Watch | $272.03 | Bearish | −5.2% / −8.6% / −13.5% / −0.9% | below 21. Crowded optics. No add. |
| XFAB | Tax 400 (FR) | Watch | €5.86 | Bearish | −3.8% / −7.9% / −16.9% / −6.8% | below 21. No add. |
| PLTR Jan-28 200 call ×2 | Taxable | Trim size / Hold | $179.92 | Bullish | +0.0% / +5.4% / +23.1% / +18.9% | Hold the Jan-28 200 call. Do not add stock. Kill: daily close under 21 near 170.76. RSI 61.92. |
| SMR / AMSC / MSTR / GFS | in book | Watch | — | — | — | Already in book. No add. |
No new / exit-path — do not average
| Name | Where / size | Action | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| CONL MSTX OKLL BMNU BMNR QCML VELL CRCG AXTX AAOX | levered / 2× | Exit-path | No new capital. Do not average. |
| AREC TE UAMY TSSI ASPN IMMR NB | spec micros | Exit-path | TE also Roth2 500 + Jan-28 $7 ×2. Do not average. |
| CDNG EUV CCXI | Tax 100 / 100 / 200 | Exit-path | No new capital / spec. |
| CIFR Mar-28 20 ×1 | Roth call | Exit-path | Tue $14.61 · 21 $17.05 (−14.3%) Bearish. Don’t-buy paper + lottery call. Do not average. |
| CXDO SWKS FISV NASA NXT NNE BULL SERV APTV | dead / near-dead long calls | Exit-path | Watch/exit-path, not new buys. |
Other long lottery calls still in the book (Watch/exit-path, not new buys): IBIT, RXRX, SOFI, EOSE, PATH, SYM, SMR Jan-28, AISP, XLU, ENVX, IDN, LTBR, SECZ, ADEA, LTRX, SDGR, ZTS, DT, KEEL, LAES, QXO, RDW, KTOS, RBBN, DRAM Jan-28 50, TE Jan-28 7.
2. This week — eIBD Aug 31 · VOL 43 NO 22
Sunday paper · scored Fri Aug 28 · “Investors Prepare For Act Two.” Frozen until next weekly. Weekday 6:50 does not rewrite this block — it updates Today. No Sunday Pages publish.
| Ticker | Paper | Tag | Fri close | Trend | 9 / 21 / 50 / 200 | Kill / note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHIP | Spotlight cup 16.86 / alt 18.48 · 97/99/93 C- | Buy | $17.79 | Bullish | +2.2% / +4.7% / +12.7% / +35.9% | holds 21 $16.99, 200 rising, under BB 18.30, vol 0.93×, RSI 59.76. Kill: close under $16.99 or fail 16.86. |
| SHOP | Cover STW / Big Cap 20 C&H 158.87 | Hold | $152.90 | Bullish | +1.3% / +5.0% / +16.9% / +16.3% | under 158.87 — wait pivot; 19d hold / 200 rising; vol 0.54× |
| FROG | Cover/Spotlight C&H 98.47 (range to 103.39) | Hold | $98.74 | Bullish | +4.4% / +8.2% / +12.4% / +52.2% | through pivot; Fri reversed H 105.76 → L 98.01 — no chase |
| NVDA | Spotlight handle 227.92 · Acc/Dis D- | Hold | $217.55 | Bullish | +0.1% / +1.0% / +4.4% / +11.2% | under 227.92; A6 Fri print matches Yahoo; 2d hold / 200 rising |
| FIVE | one-pager C&H 249 | Hold | $241.89 | Hold | -2.2% / +1.4% / +13.8% / +17.5% | broke out Mon, backtracked. 36d hold / 200 rising. Q2 Wed. |
| PLTR | extended from 163.70 cup · 8/29 high-handle 182.44 | Hold | $186.29 | Bullish | +4.5% / +10.8% / +29.6% / +23.1% | Hold Jan-28 $200 call / do not add stock. Trim size only. |
| NEM | New America consol 134.88 | Hold | $127.98 | Bullish | +0.1% / +6.9% / +22.6% / +19.3% | near 128; under 134.88 — Hold wait |
| WPM | DB 154.17 (zone to 161.88) | Hold | $153.33 | Bullish | +0.8% / +8.5% / +25.1% / +20.0% | high 160.46 tagged zone then faded — under |
| WDAY | Cover aggressive alt 202.76 | Hold | $204.72 | Bullish | +4.7% / +10.3% / +30.1% / +27.3% | through alt but +10.3% vs 21 (chase) — no add |
| MSFT | SOTD/cover alt 513.73 / cup 466.32 | Hold | $513.53 | Bullish | +3.6% / +7.0% / +19.4% / +19.6% | close under 513.73; through upper BB 511.10; paper extended |
| AU | Sector Leaders DB 113.30 | Hold | $113.19 | Hold | -0.3% / +8.4% / +27.1% / +22.5% | close 113.19 still under; high 119.19 reversed |
| TWLO | Big Cap 20 238.48 | Hold | $237.78 | Bullish | +2.9% / +5.6% / +12.7% / +48.1% | close 237.78 still under — wait |
| IBKR | flat-base 97.84 | Hold | $95.84 | Bullish | +1.3% / +3.1% / +4.0% / +22.6% | close 95.84 under; vol 0.49× — wait |
| ANET | alt 189.82 | Hold | $195.38 | Bullish | +0.3% / +2.2% / +8.3% / +29.9% | through alt, +2.2% vs 21, but vol 0.39× Acc/Dis D+ — not house Buy |
Don’t buy: ZS (200 not rising); OKTA (+14.6% vs 21); ETON (paper extended); HNGE (Acc/Dis E under 91.50). Banks skip CRM SNOW NOW CRCL TEAM. I&T: no setup. No delta printed → no puts. Quiet sleeves silent.
3. Today — Wednesday Sep 2 tape
Weekday tape · last complete Tue Sep 1 · Markets open 7:30am MT. Only house Buy is SHIP. SHOP / IBKR / ANET lost the 21 → Don’t-buy today (frozen This week stays Hold). New STW pivots UBS/SCCO = Hold wait; BAC lost 21; Barron’s SOLS Hold (200 not rising). Tech Leaders table = no pivots → not Buys. TEAM is Banks skip.
Seanergy Maritime · 1–2 year SMID sleeve
Tue $18.01 (O 17.70 H 18.17 L 17.42 V 274,400) · Trend Bullish · 9 $17.51 (+2.84%) · 21 $17.07 (+5.49%) · 50 $15.85 (+13.63%) · 200 SMA $13.14 (+37.11%) · 13d hold · vol 1.04× · RSI 61.5
Still through printed Spotlight cup 16.86, holds the 21, 200 EMA rising, under upper BB 18.24. Not a chase vs 21 (+5.49%). Only name that still clears open paper + 21 hold + rising 200 + not extended. SMID first. Dry bulk, not IGV.
Kill: daily close under 21-EMA ~$17.07, or a fail of $16.86. Banks: IGV ON (timing only); SMH/SOXX OFF. SHIP is dry bulk, not IGV.
SHOP lost the 21 (Tue $139.82 vs21 −3.33%, Trend Hold, RSI 47.67) → Don’t-buy today. Frozen This week still shows Hold. Wait a real reclaim of ~144.64; printed pivot 158.87 still ahead. Not a Hold card on Today.
| Ticker | vs Fri / Mon | Tag | Tue close | vs 21 | Kill / note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHIP | $17.79 → $18.01 | Buy | $18.01 | +5.49% | still the only house Buy; kill under 21 ~17.07 or fail 16.86 |
| SHOP | $152.90 → $139.82 | Don’t-buy | $139.82 | −3.33% | lost 21; frozen week stays Hold |
| FROG | $98.74 → $91.78 | Hold | $91.78 | +0.44% | under printed 98.47; wait, not Buy |
| NVDA | $217.55 → $217.44 | Hold | $217.44 | +0.62% | under 227.92 |
| FIVE | $241.89 → $245.08 | Hold | $245.08 | +2.35% | under 249; 37d hold |
| PLTR | $186.29 → $179.92 | Hold | $179.92 | +5.37% | Hold Jan-28 $200 call / do not add stock. RSI 61.92 |
| IBKR | $95.84 → $90.39 | Don’t-buy | $90.39 | −2.55% | lost 21 |
| ANET | $195.38 → $189.26 | Don’t-buy | $189.26 | −0.94% | lost 21 |
| WPM | STW 154.17 | Hold | $144.93 | +2.46% | standing Hold; retreated under pivot |
| UBS | STW 55.15 new | Hold | $54.14 | +0.86% | under pivot; holds 21 — wait, not Buy |
| SCCO | STW 219.04 new | Hold | $201.61 | +0.74% | under pivot; holds 21 — wait, not Buy |
| SOLS | Barron’s Buy 9/1 | Hold | $61.73 | +3.23% | 200 EMA not rising — not house Buy |
| BAC | STW 55.40 new | Don’t-buy | $61.99 | −0.60% | lost 21 |
| META | 1d reclaim | Watch | $578.54 | +0.50% | 200 EMA not rising; no add |
| SILC | still below 21 | Watch | $40.06 | −8.13% | owned — no add |
| CXW | — | Hold | $32.72 | +0.02% | SMID Comp 99; not a Spotlight Buy |
$32.72 · vs 21 +0.02% · no fresh chase
Don’t buy: SHOP 139.82 lost 21 (−3.33%); IBKR 90.39 lost 21; ANET 189.26 lost 21; BAC 61.99 STW 55.40 lost 21 (−0.60%); ZS 178.37 holds 21 but not a Buy; OKTA 166.43 vs21 +12.79% extended; ETON/HNGE; Barron’s MAR 334.55 / BCO 110.02 / FCFS 215.56 / FWONK 96.95 (all below 21 or not house Buy). Banks skip CRM SNOW NOW CRCL TEAM. Tech Leaders table dump (RNG OKTA HALO PANW FTNT PATH KARO QLYS PAYC INCY HRMY EXEL VEEV DT ETON) — no printed pivots → not Buys.
Banks overlay (timing only): IGV 106.18 8>21 HH+HL — software ON. SMH 545.22 8<21 (−3.43%) — semis OFF. SOXX 500.31 8<21 (−4.34%). Do not SMS a rotation flag.
Quiet sleeves: PENG 47.59 vs 21 54.13 (−12.09%) vol 0.78× — silent DDR watch, no SMS. 1.6T / DC cooling silent. Smart Candle under-21: RKLB 62.54 (−12.0%) Bearish; AAOI 103.39 (−12.5%); JBL 299.14 (−7.4%); GLW 145.56 (−5.7%); LITE 868.95 (+0.07%) holds 21 but crowded / no paper Buy.
4. Options
- Mak + RSI overlay: puts only on Buy/Hold when delta prints 0.15–0.25 and RSI 30–50; covered calls when RSI ≥ 70 on shares owned. No delta printed this pass → no new short puts.
- SHIP: house Buy, RSI 61.5 — not in the 30–50 put band (and not 70+ for a new covered call). Stock first.
- SILC: RSI 44.43 is in the put band, but the name is Watch / lost 21 — no new put, and CC is off (need 70+).
- META: RSI 49.95 in the put band, 200 not rising, Watch — no new put. CC off.
- APH / GOOG: not owned (quotes only). APH Yahoo bar_date wrong (2026-07-17) — data gap; later stock buy = held 21 reclaim + paper, not a 200 dip. GOOG missing this pass. No new puts. Do not invent APH/GOOG as owned LEAPS.
- PLTR: Hold the Jan-28 $200 call / trim / do not add stock. RSI 61.92 — not 70+ and no shares for a covered call.
- SPCX Sep-18 125 CSP: stays Keep (acquisition, not Mak-band).
5. Barron’s / MarketWatch
- NEW Barron’s Buy SOLS (Sep 1, Investor Circle, pre/recent $61.73). Tape: vs21 +3.23% but 200 EMA not rising → Hold / not house Buy.
- Carry: MAR 8/26 — Tue $334.55 below 21 (−5.79%) Don’t-buy. BCO 8/25 — $110.02 below 21 Don’t-buy. FCFS 8/22 follow-up — $215.56 −0.25% vs 21 Don’t-buy / not house Buy. FWONK 8/19 — $96.95 below 21 Don’t-buy. AEP 8/27 follow-up — not a fresh house Buy.
- IBD STW 9/2 “Miners And More Lead Slew Of Stocks To Watch”: printed pivots — WPM 154.17 standing Hold (retreated under); UBS 55.15 under pivot / holds 21 +0.86% Hold wait; BAC 55.40 lost 21 (−0.60%) Don’t-buy; SCCO 219.04 under pivot / holds 21 +0.74% Hold wait. NEM standing Hold. Near-range without pivots (EXPE MCO TGTX GRMN EMR PJT ERO ELVN) — not Buys.
- Tech Leaders Sep 1 table dump — no printed pivots → not Buys. TEAM is Banks skip. I&T pages / MarketWatch not scanned this pass. SOTD name not captured (renderer crash).
6. Bottlenecks (skip held sleeve)
Photonics / MLCC / foundry sleeve already held — no new on SIVEF MRAAY TYOYY SILC FOCI ShunSin XFAB IQEPF LPKFF. PENG DDR cascade scored; quiet today.
- SILC Watch — still below 21. Covered-call only if RSI prints 70+. No add.
- FOCI / ShunSin Keep on IB size — FOCI extended (+19.4% vs 21). Book complete, no new IB.
- SIVEF MRAAY TYOYY LPKFF XFAB still Watch below 21 — no average.
- PENG 47.59 vs 21 54.13 (−12.09%), vol 0.78× — stay quiet; do not SMS.
- 1.6T / DC cooling: silent (no paper + 21 setup). COHR owned Watch. AAOI/LITE crowded, not new Buys. Smart Candle sleeve daily: RKLB $62.54 vs21 −11.99% Bearish under 21; JBL $299.14 vs21 −7.38% Hold under 21; GLW $145.56 vs21 −5.7% Hold under 21; AAOI $103.39 vs21 −12.48% Hold under 21; LITE $868.95 vs21 +0.07% Hold holds 21 but crowded / no paper Buy.
7. Infra Watch
Physical/supply-chain infrastructure bottlenecks as standing research positions (energy, robotics, AI infra). Not stock picks. Not portfolio sleeve tracking — see 5. Bottlenecks for held photonics/foundry/MLCC caps. Papers + 21 still gate any add.
Methodology (T1/T2/T3)
T1 = regulatory filing / national-lab or government data / company disclosure / peer-reviewed paper. T2 = named trade press or named analyst-firm research. T3 = aggregator/general commentary — narrative only, never sole support for a number. SEO content-mill sites that repackage T1/T2 with no new reporting or named methodology are excluded on sight. Every number carries its publication date, not today’s date.
Grid equipment, not chips OPEN
Constraint: turbine/transformer lead times and interconnection queues, not HBM/DRAM. Silicon 18–24 months; grid equipment 3–7 years.
| Tier | Dated evidence |
|---|---|
| T1 | GE Vernova Q2’26 (2026-07-22): gas equipment backlog + slot reservations 116 GW (100 GW Q1’26; 80 GW guided YE 2025, actual 83). Booking 2031 slots now. 53 GW firm / 63 GW slots. |
| T2 | Power Magazine 2026-01-02 (Wood Mackenzie): large power transformer lead times 128–144 weeks. |
| T1 | LBNL Queued Up 2026 (2026-06): 2,061 GW gen/storage in US queues; median IR→COD >5 years (projects built 2025); 13% of 2000–2020 requests at COD by end-2025. |
| T2 | TrendForce 2026-08-04: HBM/DRAM tightness projected to ease by 2027. |
Exposure (mapping, not a rec): beneficiary GEV ETN VRT (backlog pricing / behind-the-meter). AI-compute names are constraint-exposed if the buildout assumes power arrives on the chip schedule. Not a Buy. House rail still papers + 21.
Trigger: GEV Q3 2026 earnings (October) — does the 2032 booking window open on schedule, or stall. Last checked 2026-08-30.
Magnet chokepoint OPEN
Constraint: refining/sintering (~China), not mining. Non-China magnet capacity does not matter until after 2028.
| Tier | Dated evidence |
|---|---|
| T2 | EU Parliament research service 2025-11-24: ~90% of refining/sintering capacity concentrated in China. |
| T1 | USGS 2025-01: China ~69% of a diversifying ~390,000-ton global REO mine base. |
| T1 | MOFCOM Announcement 70 (2025-11-07): 0.1% extraterritorial magnet license (Notice 61) suspended only until 2026-11-10. Suspension ≠ withdrawal. |
| T1 | MP Materials 10X (DoD 8-K / company 2026): $110/kg NdPr floor; 10-year 100% offtake; commission 2028; ~10,000 mt/yr — small vs EV/wind + any humanoid case. |
Exposure (mapping, not a rec): beneficiary MP (price-floor, DoD offtake). Offshore-wind / humanoid-robotics names are constraint-exposed until non-China sintering scales past 2028. Not a Buy.
Trigger: 2026-11-10 — China lets the 0.1% rule lapse, or reinstates. Binary. Last checked 2026-08-30.
Research framing for personal tracking, not investment advice.
Yahoo failures this pass: none on scored names. Options probe skipped (no invented delta). BB threshold fixed to close≥upper / bb_pos≥1.95. Deployed to invest-brief only when wrangler succeeds.
Wed Sep 2 addenda: Barron’s NEW SOLS 9/1 Hold (200 not rising); STW 9/2 UBS/SCCO Hold wait, BAC Don’t-buy; carry MAR BCO FCFS FWONK AEP. MW not scanned. APH bar stale 2026-07-17 (data gap). Options probe skipped (no invented delta).