Invest brief · Friday Sep 4, 2026 · VOL 43 NO 22

Today = weekday tape on last complete US session Thu Sep 3. Published Friday 6:50am MT. This week = Sunday eIBD, frozen. No invented OHLC or delta.

O’Neil sell: thesis break or lost 21-EMA / failed pivot. A red day is not a sell by itself. Tags are Keep / Trim / Watch / Exit on names already in the book; Buy / Hold / Don’t-buy on new paper ideas. Bullish is not a Buy.

1. Book

Fidelity + second Roth + IB as of Sat Aug 22. Yahoo daily through Thu Sep 3 (TW names: last complete local session). O’Neil: Keep if holding the 21 and thesis intact; Watch if below 21 or 200 EMA not rising. No add on SIVEF MRAAY TYOYY SILC FOCI ShunSin XFAB IQEPF LPKFF SPCX NVT COHR CBRS. APH/GOOG are not owned LEAPS (quotes only). APH Watch until a held 21 reclaim — not a 200 dip.

Keep

Name	Where / size	Action	Price	Trend	9 / 21 / 50 / 200	Note
SPCX	Tax 10 + Roth 15 = 25	Keep	$149.74	Hold	+5.3% / +8.0% / +10.0% / n/a	holds 21 (+8.0%), 20d. Acquisition sleeve. Sep-18 125 CSP stays Keep. No add.
3363.TWO FOCI	IB 90	Keep	TWD 735	Bullish	+1.7% / +9.6% / +22.7% / +23.5%	TW session. Holds 21 but extended (+9.6% vs 21) — no add. Book complete.
6451.TW ShunSin	IB 99	Keep	TWD 449	Hold	−0.9% / +1.0% / −0.2% / +29.7%	holds 21 (+1.0%), 200 rising. No new IB size.
SMR	Roth2 300	Keep	$9.75	Hold	+3.2% / +4.4% / +7.0% / −25.4%	holds 21 (+4.4%). No add.
SPAXX / FDRXX	~Tax $45.7k + IRA $1.8k + Roth2 $12.6k + HSA FDRXX $0.36k	Keep	cash	—	—	Dry powder. Do not force deploy. Margin debit −$3,250 — do not add margin risk.

Watch / no add

Name	Where / size	Action	Price	Trend	9 / 21 / 50 / 200	Note
META	Roth2 4	Watch	$610.68	Hold	+4.8% / +5.2% / +2.8% / −1.7%	holds 21 (+5.2%, 3d) but 200 EMA not rising — Watch / no add. RSI 60.7.
IQEPF	IRA 2,000	Watch	$0.61	Hold	−2.9% / −2.6% / +2.3% / +51.0%	below 21 (−2.6%). Constraint sleeve. No add.
SILC	Tax 80 + IRA 60 + Roth 60 + Roth2 10 = 210	Watch	$40.07	Hold	−4.5% / −6.5% / −6.4% / +35.8%	Still below 21 $42.83. No add. Covered-call RSI 44.77 — not 70+.
SIVEF	Tax 2,000	Watch	$2.85	Hold	−4.7% / −16.8% / −30.0% / n/a	thin OTC. Below 21. No add.
MRAAY	Roth 100	Watch	$22.29	Hold	−1.2% / −3.8% / −13.3% / +26.0%	below 21. Murata ADR. No add.
TYOYY	Tax 100 + Roth 125	Watch	$14.26	Hold	−1.2% / −6.9% / −24.0% / +18.8%	below 21. No add.
LPKFF	IRA 100	Watch	$14.96	Hold	−2.0% / −6.6% / −17.0% / +2.7%	below 21. No add.
INTC	Tax 10	Watch	$91.67	Hold	+1.0% / −1.7% / −9.6% / +24.1%	below 21. Keep size. No add.
NVT	HSA 20 + IB 10 = 30	Watch	$152.09	Hold	+0.1% / −2.0% / −3.5% / +12.8%	below 21. No add. No new IB size.
VPG	HSA 20	Watch	$62.76	Bearish	−1.0% / −9.6% / −31.2% / −8.0%	below 21, 200 not rising. Keep size.
CBRS	IRA 5 + IB 3 = 8	Watch	$190.44	Hold	+1.2% / −3.6% / −5.8% / n/a	below 21. No add.
COHR	Roth 5	Watch	$264.41	Bearish	−5.4% / −9.5% / −14.6% / −4.1%	below 21. Crowded optics. No add.
XFAB	Tax 400 (FR)	Watch	€5.95	Bearish	−1.4% / −5.4% / −14.4% / −5.6%	below 21. No add.
APH (not owned)	—	Watch	$158.55	Hold	−0.6% / −1.2% / −1.5% / +9.3%	Not owned LEAPS. Buy only on held 21 reclaim (~160.65 pre-split rail); not a 200 dip. Last Yahoo bar 2026-08-31.
PLTR Jan-28 200 call ×2	Taxable	Trim size / Hold	$182.53	Bullish	+2.1% / +6.3% / +22.9% / +20.6%	Hold the Jan-28 200 call. Do not add stock. Holds 21 (+6.3%). RSI 60.54.
INOD / SMR lottery / AMSC / MSTR / GFS	in book	Watch	—	—	—	Already in book. No add. (INOD not re-pulled this pass — not invented.)

No new / exit-path — do not average

Name	Where / size	Action	Note
CONL MSTX OKLL BMNU BMNR QCML VELL CRCG AXTX AAOX	levered / 2×	Exit-path	No new capital. Do not average. AAOX/AXTI Watch on tape.
AREC TE UAMY TSSI ASPN IMMR NB	spec micros	Exit-path	TE also Roth2 500 + Jan-28 $7 ×2. Do not average.
CIFR Mar-28 20 ×1	Roth call	Exit-path	Don’t-buy paper + lottery call. Do not average. (CIFR not re-pulled this pass — not invented.)
CXDO SWKS FISV NASA NXT NNE BULL SERV APTV	dead / near-dead long calls	Exit-path	Watch/exit-path, not new buys.

Other long lottery calls still in the book (Watch/exit-path, not new buys): IBIT, RXRX, SOFI, EOSE, PATH, SYM, SMR Jan-28, AISP, XLU, ENVX, IDN, LTBR, SECZ, ADEA, LTRX, SDGR, ZTS, DT, KEEL, LAES, QXO, RDW, KTOS, RBBN, DRAM Jan-28 50, TE Jan-28 7.

2. This week — eIBD Aug 31 · VOL 43 NO 22

Sunday paper · scored Fri Aug 28 · “Investors Prepare For Act Two.” Frozen until next weekly. Weekday 6:50 does not rewrite this block — it updates Today. No Sunday Pages publish.

Ticker	Paper	Tag	Fri close	Trend	9 / 21 / 50 / 200	Kill / note
SHIP	Spotlight cup 16.86 / alt 18.48 · 97/99/93 C-	Buy	$17.79	Bullish	+2.2% / +4.7% / +12.7% / +35.9%	holds 21 $16.99, 200 rising, under BB 18.30, vol 0.93×, RSI 59.76. Kill: close under $16.99 or fail 16.86.
SHOP	Cover STW / Big Cap 20 C&H 158.87	Hold	$152.90	Bullish	+1.3% / +5.0% / +16.9% / +16.3%	under 158.87 — wait pivot; 19d hold / 200 rising; vol 0.54×
FROG	Cover/Spotlight C&H 98.47 (range to 103.39)	Hold	$98.74	Bullish	+4.4% / +8.2% / +12.4% / +52.2%	through pivot; Fri reversed H 105.76 → L 98.01 — no chase
NVDA	Spotlight handle 227.92 · Acc/Dis D-	Hold	$217.55	Bullish	+0.1% / +1.0% / +4.4% / +11.2%	under 227.92; A6 Fri print matches Yahoo; 2d hold / 200 rising
FIVE	one-pager C&H 249	Hold	$241.89	Hold	-2.2% / +1.4% / +13.8% / +17.5%	broke out Mon, backtracked. 36d hold / 200 rising. Q2 Wed.
PLTR	extended from 163.70 cup · 8/29 high-handle 182.44	Hold	$186.29	Bullish	+4.5% / +10.8% / +29.6% / +23.1%	Hold Jan-28 $200 call / do not add stock. Trim size only.
NEM	New America consol 134.88	Hold	$127.98	Bullish	+0.1% / +6.9% / +22.6% / +19.3%	near 128; under 134.88 — Hold wait
WPM	DB 154.17 (zone to 161.88)	Hold	$153.33	Bullish	+0.8% / +8.5% / +25.1% / +20.0%	high 160.46 tagged zone then faded — under
WDAY	Cover aggressive alt 202.76	Hold	$204.72	Bullish	+4.7% / +10.3% / +30.1% / +27.3%	through alt but +10.3% vs 21 (chase) — no add
MSFT	SOTD/cover alt 513.73 / cup 466.32	Hold	$513.53	Bullish	+3.6% / +7.0% / +19.4% / +19.6%	close under 513.73; through upper BB 511.10; paper extended
AU	Sector Leaders DB 113.30	Hold	$113.19	Hold	-0.3% / +8.4% / +27.1% / +22.5%	close 113.19 still under; high 119.19 reversed
TWLO	Big Cap 20 238.48	Hold	$237.78	Bullish	+2.9% / +5.6% / +12.7% / +48.1%	close 237.78 still under — wait
IBKR	flat-base 97.84	Hold	$95.84	Bullish	+1.3% / +3.1% / +4.0% / +22.6%	close 95.84 under; vol 0.49× — wait
ANET	alt 189.82	Hold	$195.38	Bullish	+0.3% / +2.2% / +8.3% / +29.9%	through alt, +2.2% vs 21, but vol 0.39× Acc/Dis D+ — not house Buy

Don’t buy: ZS (200 not rising); OKTA (+14.6% vs 21); ETON (paper extended); HNGE (Acc/Dis E under 91.50). Banks skip CRM SNOW NOW CRCL TEAM. I&T: no setup. No delta printed → no puts. Quiet sleeves silent.

3. Today — Friday Sep 4 tape (Thu Sep 3 close)

Weekday tape · last complete Thu Sep 3 · published Fri 6:50am MT · House Buys: SHIP (Spotlight 16.86), NVDA (handle 227.92), TWLO (Big Cap 238.48), BAC (STW 55.40). HOOD SOTD 9/3 Don’t-buy (extended). Sep 4 SOTD not printed yet. Barron’s/MW blocked (captcha).

Ticker	vs Wed	Tag	Thu close	Trend	9 / 21 / 50 / 200	Kill / note
SHIP	$18.60 → $18.53	Buy	$18.53	Bullish	+3.4% / +6.6% / +15.4% / +39.5%	through 16.86; holds 21 (+6.6%); under BB 18.74; kill under 21 ~$17.39 or fail 16.86
NVDA	$224.41 → $228.45	Buy	$228.45	Bullish	+3.4% / +4.8% / +8.8% / +16.4%	through handle 227.92; holds 21 (+4.8%); under BB 230.92; kill under 21 ~$217.91
TWLO	$226.75 → $240.48	Buy	$240.48	Bullish	+3.5% / +5.6% / +12.0% / +47.8%	through Big Cap 238.48; holds 21 (+5.6%); under BB 255.27; kill under 21 ~$227.64
BAC	$62.60 → $63.04	Buy	$63.04	Bullish	+0.9% / +1.0% / +2.5% / +15.7%	through STW 55.40; holds 21 (+1.0%); kill under 21 ~$62.44
SHOP	$141.87 → $145.88	Hold	$145.88	Hold	−0.6% / +0.6% / +9.3% / +11.1%	under 158.87; 1d 21 hold — wait pivot
PLTR	$169.46 → $182.53	Hold	$182.53	Bullish	+2.1% / +6.3% / +22.9% / +20.6%	Hold Jan-28 $200 call / no stock add; vs21 +6.3%; RSI 60.54
NEM	$125.16 → $130.43	Hold	$130.43	Bullish	+2.8% / +7.3% / +22.7% / +21.0%	under 134.88; holds 21 — standing Hold
MSFT	$496.82 → $510.12	Hold	$510.12	Bullish	+1.9% / +4.6% / +15.8% / +18.8%	under 513.73; Hold wait
AU	$107.83 → $111.67	Hold	$111.67	Bullish	+0.2% / +5.2% / +22.5% / +20.0%	under 113.30; Hold wait
IBKR	$89.12 → $92.95	Hold	$92.95	Hold	−0.2% / +0.3% / +1.1% / +18.2%	under 97.84; Hold wait
ANET	$186.10 → $191.44	Hold	$191.44	Hold	−0.4% / +0.2% / +5.0% / +26.3%	through alt but no chase Buy — Hold
ETON	$61.96 → $59.90	Hold	$59.90	Hold	−1.1% / +5.1% / +26.7% / +113.4%	no printed pivot — table dump ≠ Buy
TGTX	$56.90 → $56.71	Hold	$56.71	Bullish	+2.8% / +5.5% / +5.9% / +45.8%	SOTD 9/2 cup 57.90; under pivot — Hold wait
CNQ	—	Hold	$51.14	Bullish	+1.2% / +3.8% / +11.8% / +21.8%	SOTD 9/1 handle 51.48; under — Hold wait
FCFS	$220.10 → $223.92	Hold	$223.92	Bullish	+1.8% / +3.0% / +4.9% / +14.5%	Barron’s carry — Hold, not house Buy
HALO	$109.66 → $110.76	Hold	$110.76	Bullish	+2.8% / +7.6% / +23.2% / +49.6%	Tech Leaders dump — no pivot → not Buy
VIRT	$62.69 → $64.19	Hold	$64.19	Hold	−0.1% / +2.5% / +5.9% / +36.2%	under 68.02 — Hold wait
META	$592.85 → $610.68	Watch	$610.68	Hold	+4.8% / +5.2% / +2.8% / −1.7%	holds 21 but 200 EMA not rising — Watch / no add
HOOD	—	Don't-buy	$124.72	Bullish	+14.7% / +19.9% / +22.4% / +31.2%	SOTD 9/3 bp 112.45; vs21 +19.9% thru BB 118.1 — extended chase
FROG	$91.73 → $90.61	Don't-buy	$90.61	Hold	−3.1% / −1.4% / +1.8% / +38.3%	lost 21 — Don’t-buy
FIVE	$243.08 → $239.96	Don't-buy	$239.96	Hold	−2.0% / −0.0% / +10.7% / +15.5%	lost 21 — Don’t-buy
WPM	$150.91 → $156.63	Don't-buy	$156.63	Bullish	+3.2% / +8.4% / +25.2% / +21.7%	chase vs21 +8.4% (cap 8) — Don’t-buy
WDAY	$200.87 → $206.92	Don't-buy	$206.92	Bullish	+3.9% / +8.6% / +26.1% / +29.1%	chase vs21 +8.6% (cap 8) — Don’t-buy
UBS	$54.90 → $55.68	Don't-buy	$55.68	Bullish	+1.8% / +3.0% / +5.4% / +22.9%	thru upper BB 55.57 — Don’t-buy
SCCO	$204.26 → $199.53	Don't-buy	$199.53	Hold	−2.8% / −0.8% / +6.5% / +13.6%	lost 21 — Don’t-buy
SOLS	$60.99 → $61.37	Don't-buy	$61.37	Hold	+1.6% / +1.8% / −2.7% / −9.4%	200 EMA not rising — Don’t-buy

Don’t buy: HOOD 124.72 SOTD 9/3 bp 112.45 vs21 +19.9% thru BB 118.1 (extended chase); FROG 90.61 lost 21; FIVE 239.96 lost 21; WPM 156.63 chase +8.4%; WDAY 206.92 chase +8.6%; UBS 55.68 thru BB; SCCO 199.53 lost 21; SOLS 61.37 200 not rising; JMKE 20.07 lost 21; FDX 324.31 lost 21; CAKE 107.18 lost 21. Banks skip CRM SNOW NOW CRCL TEAM. Tech Leaders / SMID / Top 200 Sep 3 table dumps — no printed pivots → not Buys. Sep 4 SOTD not printed. AMADY Barron’s carry — no fresh MW/Barron’s pull (captcha).

Banks overlay (timing only): IGV 106.95 8>21 HH+HL vs21 +3.2% — software ON. SMH 552.6 8<21 (−1.6%) — semis OFF. SOXX 502.2 8<21 (−3.3%). Do not SMS a rotation flag.

Quiet sleeves: PENG 48.63 vs 21 52.73 (−7.8%) vol 0.35× — silent DDR watch, no SMS. 1.6T / DC cooling silent. Smart Candle under-21: RKLB 63.81 (−8.5%); AAOI 100.38 (−12.9%); JBL 305.92 (−3.8%); GLW 146.0 (−4.0%); LITE 847.37 (−2.4%) crowded / no paper Buy.

4. Options

• Mak + RSI overlay: puts only on Buy/Hold when delta prints 0.15–0.25 and RSI 30–50; covered calls when RSI ≥ 70 on shares owned. No delta printed this pass → no new short puts.
• SHIP / NVDA / TWLO / BAC: house Buys but RSI 64.44 / 59.21 / 59.43 / 55.57 — not in the 30–50 put band. Stock first.
• SILC: RSI 44.77 in put band, but Watch / lost 21 — no new put; CC off (need 70+).
• META: RSI 60.7 not 30–50, 200 not rising, Watch — no new put.
• APH / GOOG: not owned (quotes only). No new puts. Do not invent as owned LEAPS.
• PLTR: Hold the Jan-28 $200 call / trim / do not add stock. RSI 60.54 — not 70+ and no shares for a covered call.
• SPCX Sep-18 125 CSP: stays Keep (acquisition, not Mak-band).

5. Barron’s / MarketWatch

• IBD SOTD 9/3 HOOD cup/handle 112.45 (zone peak 118.07), Comp 80. Thu $124.72 vs21 +19.9% thru BB → Don’t-buy (extended).
• IBD SOTD 9/4: not printed as of Fri 6:50am MT (hub still HOOD 9/3).
• Barron’s / MarketWatch: captcha / anti-bot blocked this pass — no new named picks. Carry AMADY / SOLS / MAR / BCO / FCFS / FWONK from prior days only.
• STW / Spotlight standing: SHIP 16.86 Buy; NVDA 227.92 Buy; TWLO 238.48 Buy; BAC 55.40 Buy; TGTX 57.90 Hold; CNQ 51.48 Hold; SHOP 158.87 Hold; NEM / MSFT / AU / IBKR Hold wait.
• Tech Leaders / SMID / Large-Mid / Top 200 dated Sep 3 — table dumps, no printed pivots → not Buys. TEAM Banks skip.
• eIBD weekly still Aug 31 VOL 43 NO 22 — This week frozen; weekday does not rewrite it.

6. Bottlenecks (skip held sleeve)

Photonics / MLCC / foundry sleeve already held — no new on SIVEF MRAAY TYOYY SILC FOCI ShunSin XFAB IQEPF LPKFF. PENG DDR cascade scored; quiet today.

• SILC Watch — still below 21. Covered-call only if RSI prints 70+. No add.
• IQEPF Watch — below 21. No add.
• FOCI / ShunSin Keep on IB size — FOCI extended. Book complete, no new IB.
• SIVEF MRAAY TYOYY LPKFF XFAB still Watch below 21 — no average.
• PENG 48.63 vs 21 52.73 (−7.8%), vol 0.35× — stay quiet; do not SMS.
• 1.6T / DC cooling: silent (no paper + 21 setup). COHR owned Watch. AAOI/LITE crowded, not new Buys.

7. Infra Watch

Physical/supply-chain infrastructure bottlenecks as standing research positions (energy, robotics, AI infra). Not stock picks. Not portfolio sleeve tracking — see 5. Bottlenecks for held photonics/foundry/MLCC caps. Papers + 21 still gate any add.

Methodology (T1/T2/T3)

T1 = regulatory filing / national-lab or government data / company disclosure / peer-reviewed paper. T2 = named trade press or named analyst-firm research. T3 = aggregator/general commentary — narrative only, never sole support for a number. SEO content-mill sites that repackage T1/T2 with no new reporting or named methodology are excluded on sight. Every number carries its publication date, not today’s date.

Grid equipment, not chips OPEN

Constraint: turbine/transformer lead times and interconnection queues, not HBM/DRAM. Silicon 18–24 months; grid equipment 3–7 years.

Tier	Dated evidence
T1	GE Vernova Q2’26 (2026-07-22): gas equipment backlog + slot reservations 116 GW (100 GW Q1’26; 80 GW guided YE 2025, actual 83). Booking 2031 slots now. 53 GW firm / 63 GW slots.
T2	Power Magazine 2026-01-02 (Wood Mackenzie): large power transformer lead times 128–144 weeks.
T1	LBNL Queued Up 2026 (2026-06): 2,061 GW gen/storage in US queues; median IR→COD >5 years (projects built 2025); 13% of 2000–2020 requests at COD by end-2025.
T2	TrendForce 2026-08-04: HBM/DRAM tightness projected to ease by 2027.

Exposure (mapping, not a rec): beneficiary GEV ETN VRT (backlog pricing / behind-the-meter). AI-compute names are constraint-exposed if the buildout assumes power arrives on the chip schedule. Not a Buy. House rail still papers + 21.

Trigger: GEV Q3 2026 earnings (October) — does the 2032 booking window open on schedule, or stall. Last checked 2026-08-30.

Magnet chokepoint OPEN

Constraint: refining/sintering (~China), not mining. Non-China magnet capacity does not matter until after 2028.

Tier	Dated evidence
T2	EU Parliament research service 2025-11-24: ~90% of refining/sintering capacity concentrated in China.
T1	USGS 2025-01: China ~69% of a diversifying ~390,000-ton global REO mine base.
T1	MOFCOM Announcement 70 (2025-11-07): 0.1% extraterritorial magnet license (Notice 61) suspended only until 2026-11-10. Suspension ≠ withdrawal.
T1	MP Materials 10X (DoD 8-K / company 2026): $110/kg NdPr floor; 10-year 100% offtake; commission 2028; ~10,000 mt/yr — small vs EV/wind + any humanoid case.

Exposure (mapping, not a rec): beneficiary MP (price-floor, DoD offtake). Offshore-wind / humanoid-robotics names are constraint-exposed until non-China sintering scales past 2028. Not a Buy.

Trigger: 2026-11-10 — China lets the 0.1% rule lapse, or reinstates. Binary. Last checked 2026-08-30.

Research framing for personal tracking, not investment advice.

Yahoo failures this pass: none on scored names. Options probe skipped (no invented delta). BB threshold fixed to close≥upper / bb_pos≥1.95. Deployed to invest-brief only when wrangler succeeds.

Thu Sep 3 afternoon MT publish (not 6:50am): BAC Buy (STW 55.40, 1d 21 reclaim); SHIP Don’t-buy thru BB; TGTX SOTD Hold 57.90; SOLS Don’t-buy (200 not rising); AMADY Barron’s new — no Yahoo tape. IQEPF lost 21 → Watch. PLTR 21 lost — still Hold the Jan-28 $200 call / no stock add. APH/GOOG not owned LEAPS. MW blocked. Options probe skipped (no invented delta).