$186.29 · vs 21 +10.76% · no stock add
Invest brief · Monday Aug 31, 2026 · VOL 43 NO 22
Today = weekday tape on last complete US session Fri Aug 28 (open 7:30am MT). This week = Sunday eIBD, frozen. No invented OHLC or delta.
O’Neil sell: thesis break or lost 21-EMA / failed pivot. A red day is not a sell by itself. Tags are Keep / Trim / Watch / Exit on names already in the book; Buy / Hold / Don’t-buy on new paper ideas. Bullish is not a Buy.
1. Book
Fidelity + second Roth + IB as of Sat Aug 22. Yahoo daily through Fri Aug 28 (TW names: last complete local session). O’Neil: Keep if holding the 21 and thesis intact; Watch if below 21. No add on SIVEF MRAAY TYOYY SILC FOCI ShunSin XFAB IQEPF LPKFF SPCX NVT COHR CBRS.
Keep
| Name | Where / size | Action | Price | Trend | 9 / 21 / 50 / 200 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX | Tax 10 + Roth 15 = 25 | Keep | $141.50 | Hold | +1.9% / +4.1% / +2.9% / n/a | holds 21 (+4.05%), 16d, 200 SMA n/a. Acquisition sleeve. Sep-18 125 CSP stays Keep. No add. |
| IQEPF | IRA 2,000 | Keep | $0.66 | Bullish | +2.5% / +5.0% / +9.8% / +68.3% | holds 21, 200 rising, vol 0.32×. Constraint sleeve. No add. |
| 3363.TWO FOCI | IB 90 | Keep | TWD 747 | Bullish | +12.7% / +19.3% / +26.9% / +27.3% | TW Mon session. Holds 21 but extended / through upper BB — no add. Book complete. |
| 6451.TW ShunSin | IB 99 | Keep | TWD 456 | Hold | +3.4% / +4.6% / −1.3% / +34.2% | holds 21 (+4.56%), 200 rising. No new IB size. |
| SPAXX / FDRXX | ~Tax $45.7k + IRA $1.8k + Roth2 $12.6k + HSA FDRXX $0.36k | Keep | cash | — | — | Dry powder. Do not force deploy. Margin debit −$3,250 — do not add margin risk. |
Watch / no add
| Name | Where / size | Action | Price | Trend | 9 / 21 / 50 / 200 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SILC | Tax 80 + IRA 60 + Roth 60 + Roth2 10 = 210 | Watch | $42.20 | Hold | −4.5% / −3.8% / −1.8% / +45.6% | Lost the 21 Fri (O 47.00 H 47.75 L 40.80 C 42.20, vol 1.48×). Was Keep Thu. No add. Covered-call RSI 47.58 — not 70+. |
| META | Roth2 4 | Watch | $578.02 | Hold | +1.5% / +0.4% / −2.4% / −7.1% | 1d reclaim of 21 (+0.40%). 200 EMA not rising. Small. No add. |
| INOD | IRA 100 | Watch | $56.59 | Bearish | −4.4% / −7.8% / −14.5% / −7.0% | below 21, 200 not rising. No add. |
| SIVEF | Tax 2,000 | Watch | $3.37 | Hold | −9.9% / −13.9% / −29.5% / n/a | last print Thu 8/27 (thin OTC). Below 21. No add. |
| MRAAY | Roth 100 | Watch | $22.78 | Hold | −0.5% / −3.3% / −15.0% / +30.6% | below 21. Murata ADR. No add. |
| TYOYY | Tax 100 + Roth 125 | Watch | $14.13 | Hold | −4.1% / −10.7% / −28.8% / +19.4% | below 21. No add. |
| LPKFF | IRA 100 | Watch | $14.83 | Hold | −5.1% / −10.1% / −23.0% / +2.8% | below 21. No add. |
| INTC | Tax 10 | Watch | $89.47 | Hold | −2.1% / −5.5% / −14.7% / +22.9% | below 21. Keep size. No add. |
| NVT | HSA 20 + IB 10 = 30 | Watch | $148.48 | Hold | −4.4% / −5.9% / −6.9% / +10.8% | below 21. No new IB size. |
| VPG | HSA 20 | Watch | $62.55 | Bearish | −5.0% / −14.4% / −35.7% / −7.5% | below 21, 200 not rising. Keep size. |
| CBRS | IRA 5 + IB 3 = 8 | Watch | $179.08 | Hold | −7.9% / −12.3% / −12.6% / n/a | below 21. No add. |
| COHR | Roth 5 | Watch | $279.20 | Hold | −5.0% / −7.7% / −12.7% / +2.2% | below 21. Crowded optics. No add. |
| XFAB | Tax 400 (FR) | Watch | €6.26 | Hold | +1.4% / −3.5% / −13.8% / −0.2% | last complete Thu 8/27 (Mon Euro bar dropped). Below 21. No add. |
| PLTR Jan-28 200 call ×2 | Taxable | Trim size / Hold | $186.29 | Bullish | +4.5% / +10.8% / +29.6% / +23.1% | Hold the Jan-28 200 call. Do not add stock. Kill: daily close under 21 near 168.19. |
| SMR / AMSC / MSTR / GFS | in book | Watch | — | — | — | Already in book. No add. |
No new / exit-path — do not average
| Name | Where / size | Action | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| CONL MSTX OKLL BMNU BMNR QCML VELL CRCG AXTX AAOX | levered / 2× | Exit-path | No new capital. Do not average. |
| AREC TE UAMY TSSI ASPN IMMR NB | spec micros | Exit-path | TE also Roth2 500 + Jan-28 $7 ×2. Do not average. |
| CDNG EUV CCXI | Tax 100 / 100 / 200 | Exit-path | No new capital / spec. |
| CIFR Mar-28 20 ×1 | Roth call | Exit-path | Fri $15.17 · 21 $17.48 (−13.2%) Bearish. Don’t-buy paper + lottery call. Do not average. |
| CXDO SWKS FISV NASA NXT NNE BULL SERV APTV | dead / near-dead long calls | Exit-path | Watch/exit-path, not new buys. |
Other long lottery calls still in the book (Watch/exit-path, not new buys): IBIT, RXRX, SOFI, EOSE, PATH, SYM, SMR Jan-28, AISP, XLU, ENVX, IDN, LTBR, SECZ, ADEA, LTRX, SDGR, ZTS, DT, KEEL, LAES, QXO, RDW, KTOS, RBBN, DRAM Jan-28 50, TE Jan-28 7. Taxable long put SPY 760 Aug-31 ×1 — expires today; not a stock thesis.
2. This week — eIBD Aug 31 · VOL 43 NO 22
Sunday paper · scored Fri Aug 28 · “Investors Prepare For Act Two.” Frozen until next weekly. Weekday 6:50 does not rewrite this block — it updates Today. No Sunday Pages publish.
| Ticker | Paper | Tag | Fri close | Trend | 9 / 21 / 50 / 200 | Kill / note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHIP | Spotlight cup 16.86 / alt 18.48 · 97/99/93 C- | Buy | $17.79 | Bullish | +2.2% / +4.7% / +12.7% / +35.9% | holds 21 $16.99, 200 rising, under BB 18.30, vol 0.93×, RSI 59.76. Kill: close under $16.99 or fail 16.86. |
| SHOP | Cover STW / Big Cap 20 C&H 158.87 | Hold | $152.90 | Bullish | +1.3% / +5.0% / +16.9% / +16.3% | under 158.87 — wait pivot; 19d hold / 200 rising; vol 0.54× |
| FROG | Cover/Spotlight C&H 98.47 (range to 103.39) | Hold | $98.74 | Bullish | +4.4% / +8.2% / +12.4% / +52.2% | through pivot; Fri reversed H 105.76 → L 98.01 — no chase |
| NVDA | Spotlight handle 227.92 · Acc/Dis D- | Hold | $217.55 | Bullish | +0.1% / +1.0% / +4.4% / +11.2% | under 227.92; A6 Fri print matches Yahoo; 2d hold / 200 rising |
| FIVE | one-pager C&H 249 | Hold | $241.89 | Hold | -2.2% / +1.4% / +13.8% / +17.5% | broke out Mon, backtracked. 36d hold / 200 rising. Q2 Wed. |
| PLTR | extended from 163.70 cup · 8/29 high-handle 182.44 | Hold | $186.29 | Bullish | +4.5% / +10.8% / +29.6% / +23.1% | Hold Jan-28 $200 call / do not add stock. Trim size only. |
| NEM | New America consol 134.88 | Hold | $127.98 | Bullish | +0.1% / +6.9% / +22.6% / +19.3% | near 128; under 134.88 — Hold wait |
| WPM | DB 154.17 (zone to 161.88) | Hold | $153.33 | Bullish | +0.8% / +8.5% / +25.1% / +20.0% | high 160.46 tagged zone then faded — under |
| WDAY | Cover aggressive alt 202.76 | Hold | $204.72 | Bullish | +4.7% / +10.3% / +30.1% / +27.3% | through alt but +10.3% vs 21 (chase) — no add |
| MSFT | SOTD/cover alt 513.73 / cup 466.32 | Hold | $513.53 | Bullish | +3.6% / +7.0% / +19.4% / +19.6% | close under 513.73; through upper BB 511.10; paper extended |
| AU | Sector Leaders DB 113.30 | Hold | $113.19 | Hold | -0.3% / +8.4% / +27.1% / +22.5% | close 113.19 still under; high 119.19 reversed |
| TWLO | Big Cap 20 238.48 | Hold | $237.78 | Bullish | +2.9% / +5.6% / +12.7% / +48.1% | close 237.78 still under — wait |
| IBKR | flat-base 97.84 | Hold | $95.84 | Bullish | +1.3% / +3.1% / +4.0% / +22.6% | close 95.84 under; vol 0.49× — wait |
| ANET | alt 189.82 | Hold | $195.38 | Bullish | +0.3% / +2.2% / +8.3% / +29.9% | through alt, +2.2% vs 21, but vol 0.39× Acc/Dis D+ — not house Buy |
Don’t buy: ZS (200 not rising); OKTA (+14.6% vs 21); ETON (paper extended); HNGE (Acc/Dis E under 91.50). Banks skip CRM SNOW NOW CRCL TEAM. I&T: no setup. No delta printed → no puts. Quiet sleeves silent.
3. Today — Monday Aug 31 tape
Weekday tape · last complete Fri Aug 28 · Markets open 7:30am MT. Tape on the frozen weekly list is unchanged vs Sunday (same Friday bar). New daily prints below. Charts are last painted Thu 8/27 (Python painter blocked this run); numbers are Fri.
Only house Buy remains SHIP. SHOP still waits 158.87. SILC lost the 21 — Watch, no add. PENG silent (49.51 vs 21 54.83, −9.7%, vol 0.42×).
Seanergy Maritime · 1–2 year SMID sleeve
Fri $17.79 (O 17.54 H 18.01 L 17.50 V 245,100) · Trend Bullish · 9 $17.41 (+2.2%) · 21 $16.99 (+4.7%) · 50 $15.78 (+12.7%) · 200 $13.09 (+35.9%) · 12d hold · vol 0.93× · RSI 59.76
Still through printed 16.86, holds the 21, 200 rising, under upper BB 18.30. Not a chase vs 21. Only name that still clears open paper + 21 hold + rising 200 + not extended. SMID first.
Kill: daily close under 21-EMA $16.99, or a fail of $16.86. Banks: no SMH rotation (8<21). IGV software is ON (timing only) — SHIP is dry bulk, not IGV.
Shopify · 8/29 software list + weekly cover
Fri $152.90 · Trend Bullish · 9 +1.3% · 21 +5.0% · 50 +16.9% · 200 +16.3% · 19d hold · vol 0.54× · RSI 61.23
Holds the 21 and a rising 200, still under the printed 158.87 pivot. Wait a real reclaim — do not chase the handle. Vol 0.54×.
Kill / wait: daily close under 21 near 145.62; entry only on a hold of 158.87.
| Ticker | vs Sunday | Tag | Fri close | vs 21 | Kill / note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHIP | unchanged | Buy | $17.79 | +4.70% | still the only house Buy |
| SHOP | unchanged | Hold | $152.90 | +5.00% | under 158.87 |
| CXW | Fri $33.81 vs Thu $33.79 | Hold | $33.81 | +3.19% | SMID Comp 99 table; not a Spotlight Buy |
| PLTR | unchanged | Hold | $186.29 | +10.76% | Hold Jan-28 200 / do not add stock |
| SILC | lost 21 (Thu Keep $47.63) | Watch | $42.20 | −3.84% | owned — no add |
| META | 1d 21 reclaim | Watch | $578.02 | +0.40% | 200 not rising; no add |
$33.81 · vs 21 +3.19% · no fresh chase
Don’t buy: ZS (200 not rising); OKTA (+14.6% vs 21); ETON (paper extended); HNGE (Acc/Dis E); MAR below 21 (−1.93%); BCO below 21 (−1.10%); FWONK below 21 (−0.46%); ANF extended (+27.3% vs 21, through upper BB, RSI 77.7); NOW / CRM / SNOW / CRCL / TEAM Banks skip. PENG quiet (49.51 vs 21 54.83, −9.7%, vol 0.42×). I&T: no new Monday setup — 8/29 software list is already in This week (MSFT PLTR WDAY FROG SHOP). SOTD still Fri MSFT “AI Winner” (513.73) — Hold, through upper BB, paper extended.
Banks overlay (timing only): IGV 8>21, Bullish, through upper BB 108.94 — software ON. SMH 8<21, lost 21 (−2.31%) — semis OFF. SOXX same, 8<21 (−3.44%). Do not SMS a rotation flag.
4. Options
- Mak + RSI overlay: puts only on Buy/Hold when delta prints 0.15–0.25 and RSI 30–50; covered calls when RSI ≥ 70 on shares owned. No delta printed this pass → no new short puts.
- SHIP: house Buy, RSI 59.76 — not in the 30–50 put band (and not 70+ for a new covered call). Stock first.
- SILC: RSI 47.58 is in the put band, but the name lost the 21 and is Watch / owned — no new put, and CC is off (need 70+).
- META: RSI 49.56 in the put band, 200 not rising, Watch, tiny size — no new put. CC off.
- PLTR: Hold the Jan-28 $200 call / trim / do not add stock. RSI 69.28 — not 70+ for a new CC on shares he doesn’t hold.
- SPCX Sep-18 125 CSP: stays Keep (acquisition, not Mak-band). SPY 760 Aug-31 long put expires today.
5. Barron’s / MarketWatch
- No new Barron’s Buy dated 8/29–8/31 on the public stock-picks board. Carry: MAR 8/26 Buy — Fri $351.08 below 21 (−1.93%) Don’t-buy until a 21 reclaim. BCO 8/25 — $110.97 below 21 Don’t-buy. FCFS 8/22 follow-up — $219.21 Hold / not a house Buy. FWONK 8/19 — $101.80 below 21 Don’t-buy.
- AEP 8/27 “buy while still cheap” is a follow-up of a Feb pick, not a fresh house Buy.
- IBD 8/29: Microsoft, Palantir, Workday, JFrog, Shopify near buy points — already scored in This week. NOW remains Banks skip.
- I&T headlines (not setups / not Buys): MRVL in-line drop, TTWO GTA preview, PYPL dive, CYTK drop. Data tables still dated Fri 8/28. No Monday SOTD.
- MW / tape: ANF still extended. Earnings this week (not Buys): AVGO, DELL, PANW Tue; SNOW is Banks skip.
6. Bottlenecks (skip held sleeve)
Photonics / MLCC / foundry sleeve already held — no new on SIVEF MRAAY TYOYY SILC FOCI ShunSin XFAB IQEPF LPKFF. PENG DDR cascade scored; quiet today.
- SILC Watch — lost 21 Fri. Covered-call only if RSI prints 70+ later. No add.
- FOCI / ShunSin Keep on IB size — FOCI extended. Book complete, no new IB.
- SIVEF MRAAY TYOYY LPKFF XFAB still Watch below 21 — no average.
- PENG 49.51 vs 21 54.83 (−9.70%), vol 0.42× — stay quiet; do not SMS.
- 1.6T / DC cooling: silent (no paper + 21 setup). COHR owned Watch. AAOI/LITE crowded, not new Buys. Smart Candle sleeve daily: RKLB Bearish under 21; JBL GLW AAOI under 21; LITE holds 21 (+3.3%) but crowded / no paper Buy.
7. Infra Watch
Physical/supply-chain infrastructure bottlenecks as standing research positions (energy, robotics, AI infra). Not stock picks. Not portfolio sleeve tracking — see 5. Bottlenecks for held photonics/foundry/MLCC caps. Papers + 21 still gate any add.
Methodology (T1/T2/T3)
T1 = regulatory filing / national-lab or government data / company disclosure / peer-reviewed paper. T2 = named trade press or named analyst-firm research. T3 = aggregator/general commentary — narrative only, never sole support for a number. SEO content-mill sites that repackage T1/T2 with no new reporting or named methodology are excluded on sight. Every number carries its publication date, not today’s date.
Grid equipment, not chips OPEN
Constraint: turbine/transformer lead times and interconnection queues, not HBM/DRAM. Silicon 18–24 months; grid equipment 3–7 years.
| Tier | Dated evidence |
|---|---|
| T1 | GE Vernova Q2’26 (2026-07-22): gas equipment backlog + slot reservations 116 GW (100 GW Q1’26; 80 GW guided YE 2025, actual 83). Booking 2031 slots now. 53 GW firm / 63 GW slots. |
| T2 | Power Magazine 2026-01-02 (Wood Mackenzie): large power transformer lead times 128–144 weeks. |
| T1 | LBNL Queued Up 2026 (2026-06): 2,061 GW gen/storage in US queues; median IR→COD >5 years (projects built 2025); 13% of 2000–2020 requests at COD by end-2025. |
| T2 | TrendForce 2026-08-04: HBM/DRAM tightness projected to ease by 2027. |
Exposure (mapping, not a rec): beneficiary GEV ETN VRT (backlog pricing / behind-the-meter). AI-compute names are constraint-exposed if the buildout assumes power arrives on the chip schedule. Not a Buy. House rail still papers + 21.
Trigger: GEV Q3 2026 earnings (October) — does the 2032 booking window open on schedule, or stall. Last checked 2026-08-30.
Magnet chokepoint OPEN
Constraint: refining/sintering (~China), not mining. Non-China magnet capacity does not matter until after 2028.
| Tier | Dated evidence |
|---|---|
| T2 | EU Parliament research service 2025-11-24: ~90% of refining/sintering capacity concentrated in China. |
| T1 | USGS 2025-01: China ~69% of a diversifying ~390,000-ton global REO mine base. |
| T1 | MOFCOM Announcement 70 (2025-11-07): 0.1% extraterritorial magnet license (Notice 61) suspended only until 2026-11-10. Suspension ≠ withdrawal. |
| T1 | MP Materials 10X (DoD 8-K / company 2026): $110/kg NdPr floor; 10-year 100% offtake; commission 2028; ~10,000 mt/yr — small vs EV/wind + any humanoid case. |
Exposure (mapping, not a rec): beneficiary MP (price-floor, DoD offtake). Offshore-wind / humanoid-robotics names are constraint-exposed until non-China sintering scales past 2028. Not a Buy.
Trigger: 2026-11-10 — China lets the 0.1% rule lapse, or reinstates. Binary. Last checked 2026-08-30.
Research framing for personal tracking, not investment advice.
Yahoo failures this pass: none on scored names. Options probe skipped (no invented delta). BB threshold fixed to close≥upper / bb_pos≥1.95. Deployed to invest-brief only when wrangler succeeds.