Invest brief · Thursday Sep 3, 2026 · VOL 43 NO 22

Today = weekday tape on last complete US session Wed Sep 2. Published Thursday afternoon MT (6:50 job died after scores; this is not a 6:50am print). This week = Sunday eIBD, frozen. No invented OHLC or delta.

O’Neil sell: thesis break or lost 21-EMA / failed pivot. A red day is not a sell by itself. Tags are Keep / Trim / Watch / Exit on names already in the book; Buy / Hold / Don’t-buy on new paper ideas. Bullish is not a Buy.

1. Book

Fidelity + second Roth + IB as of Sat Aug 22. Yahoo daily through Wed Sep 2 (TW names: last complete local session). O’Neil: Keep if holding the 21 and thesis intact; Watch if below 21 or 200 EMA not rising. No add on SIVEF MRAAY TYOYY SILC FOCI ShunSin XFAB IQEPF LPKFF SPCX NVT COHR CBRS. APH/GOOG are not owned LEAPS (quotes only). APH Yahoo is split-adjusted (~80.04 vs pre-split 160.65) — Watch until a held 21 reclaim; not a 200 dip.

Keep

Name	Where / size	Action	Price	Trend	9 / 21 / 50 / 200	Note
SPCX	Tax 10 + Roth 15 = 25	Keep	$140.71	Hold	+0.2% / +2.3% / +3.3% / n/a	holds 21 (+2.33%), 19d, 200 SMA n/a. Acquisition sleeve. Sep-18 125 CSP stays Keep. No add.
3363.TWO FOCI	IB 90	Keep	TWD 774	Bullish	+7.5% / +16.5% / +29.9% / +30.5%	TW session. Holds 21 but extended (+16.49% vs 21) — no add. Book complete.
6451.TW ShunSin	IB 99	Keep	TWD 450	Hold	−0.9% / +1.3% / −0.7% / +30.6%	holds 21 (+1.33%), 200 rising. Pulled back from Tue TWD 500. No new IB size.
SPAXX / FDRXX	~Tax $45.7k + IRA $1.8k + Roth2 $12.6k + HSA FDRXX $0.36k	Keep	cash	—	—	Dry powder. Do not force deploy. Margin debit −$3,250 — do not add margin risk.

Watch / no add

Name	Where / size	Action	Price	Trend	9 / 21 / 50 / 200	Note
IQEPF	IRA 2,000	Watch	$0.59	Hold	−5.8% / −5.0% / −0.6% / +49.1%	lost 21 (−5.03%). Constraint sleeve. No add. Was Keep on the Tue tape.
META	Roth2 4	Watch	$592.85	Hold	+2.9% / +2.7% / −0.0% / −4.6%	holds 21 (+2.70%, 2d) but 200 EMA not rising — Watch / no add (not Keep). RSI 55.18.
SILC	Tax 80 + IRA 60 + Roth 60 + Roth2 10 = 210	Watch	$39.51	Hold	−7.5% / −8.6% / −7.6% / +35.1%	Still below 21 $43.23. No add. Covered-call RSI 43.65 — not 70+.
INOD	IRA 100	Watch	$54.29	Bearish	−5.5% / −9.7% / −16.0% / −10.7%	below 21, 200 not rising. No add.
SIVEF	Tax 2,000	Watch	$2.26	Hold	−25.3% / −35.1% / −45.9% / n/a	thin OTC. Below 21. No add.
MRAAY	Roth 100	Watch	$22.47	Hold	−0.8% / −3.7% / −14.1% / +27.9%	below 21. Murata ADR. No add.
TYOYY	Tax 100 + Roth 125	Watch	$14.41	Hold	−1.0% / −7.3% / −25.0% / +20.9%	below 21. No add.
LPKFF	IRA 100	Watch	$14.93	Hold	−3.3% / −8.1% / −19.8% / +3.0%	below 21. No add.
INTC	Tax 10	Watch	$90.05	Hold	−0.5% / −3.6% / −11.8% / +22.4%	below 21. Keep size. No add.
NVT	HSA 20 + IB 10 = 30	Watch	$148.17	Hold	−3.1% / −5.1% / −6.3% / +10.2%	below 21. No add. No new IB size.
VPG	HSA 20	Watch	$61.35	Bearish	−4.1% / −13.4% / −34.8% / −9.7%	below 21, 200 not rising. Keep size.
CBRS	IRA 5 + IB 3 = 8	Watch	$184.52	Hold	−1.7% / −6.9% / −8.7% / n/a	below 21. No add.
COHR	Roth 5	Watch	$268.64	Bearish	−5.2% / −9.0% / −13.9% / −2.4%	below 21. Crowded optics. No add.
XFAB	Tax 400 (FR)	Watch	€5.89	Bearish	−2.7% / −6.9% / −15.8% / −6.5%	below 21. No add.
PLTR Jan-28 200 call ×2	Taxable	Trim size / Hold	$169.46	Hold	−4.7% / −0.7% / +15.2% / +12.0%	Hold the Jan-28 200 call. Do not add stock. 21 hold lost (−0.69%; 21 ~$170.64). RSI 52.2.
SMR / AMSC / MSTR / GFS	in book	Watch	—	—	—	Already in book. No add.

No new / exit-path — do not average

Name	Where / size	Action	Note
CONL MSTX OKLL BMNU BMNR QCML VELL CRCG AXTX AAOX	levered / 2×	Exit-path	No new capital. Do not average.
AREC TE UAMY TSSI ASPN IMMR NB	spec micros	Exit-path	TE also Roth2 500 + Jan-28 $7 ×2. Do not average.
CDNG EUV CCXI	Tax 100 / 100 / 200	Exit-path	No new capital / spec.
CIFR Mar-28 20 ×1	Roth call	Exit-path	Wed $15.18 · 21 $16.88 (−10.09%) Bearish. Don’t-buy paper + lottery call. Do not average.
CXDO SWKS FISV NASA NXT NNE BULL SERV APTV	dead / near-dead long calls	Exit-path	Watch/exit-path, not new buys.

Other long lottery calls still in the book (Watch/exit-path, not new buys): IBIT, RXRX, SOFI, EOSE, PATH, SYM, SMR Jan-28, AISP, XLU, ENVX, IDN, LTBR, SECZ, ADEA, LTRX, SDGR, ZTS, DT, KEEL, LAES, QXO, RDW, KTOS, RBBN, DRAM Jan-28 50, TE Jan-28 7.

2. This week — eIBD Aug 31 · VOL 43 NO 22

Sunday paper · scored Fri Aug 28 · “Investors Prepare For Act Two.” Frozen until next weekly. Weekday 6:50 does not rewrite this block — it updates Today. No Sunday Pages publish.

Ticker	Paper	Tag	Fri close	Trend	9 / 21 / 50 / 200	Kill / note
SHIP	Spotlight cup 16.86 / alt 18.48 · 97/99/93 C-	Buy	$17.79	Bullish	+2.2% / +4.7% / +12.7% / +35.9%	holds 21 $16.99, 200 rising, under BB 18.30, vol 0.93×, RSI 59.76. Kill: close under $16.99 or fail 16.86.
SHOP	Cover STW / Big Cap 20 C&H 158.87	Hold	$152.90	Bullish	+1.3% / +5.0% / +16.9% / +16.3%	under 158.87 — wait pivot; 19d hold / 200 rising; vol 0.54×
FROG	Cover/Spotlight C&H 98.47 (range to 103.39)	Hold	$98.74	Bullish	+4.4% / +8.2% / +12.4% / +52.2%	through pivot; Fri reversed H 105.76 → L 98.01 — no chase
NVDA	Spotlight handle 227.92 · Acc/Dis D-	Hold	$217.55	Bullish	+0.1% / +1.0% / +4.4% / +11.2%	under 227.92; A6 Fri print matches Yahoo; 2d hold / 200 rising
FIVE	one-pager C&H 249	Hold	$241.89	Hold	-2.2% / +1.4% / +13.8% / +17.5%	broke out Mon, backtracked. 36d hold / 200 rising. Q2 Wed.
PLTR	extended from 163.70 cup · 8/29 high-handle 182.44	Hold	$186.29	Bullish	+4.5% / +10.8% / +29.6% / +23.1%	Hold Jan-28 $200 call / do not add stock. Trim size only.
NEM	New America consol 134.88	Hold	$127.98	Bullish	+0.1% / +6.9% / +22.6% / +19.3%	near 128; under 134.88 — Hold wait
WPM	DB 154.17 (zone to 161.88)	Hold	$153.33	Bullish	+0.8% / +8.5% / +25.1% / +20.0%	high 160.46 tagged zone then faded — under
WDAY	Cover aggressive alt 202.76	Hold	$204.72	Bullish	+4.7% / +10.3% / +30.1% / +27.3%	through alt but +10.3% vs 21 (chase) — no add
MSFT	SOTD/cover alt 513.73 / cup 466.32	Hold	$513.53	Bullish	+3.6% / +7.0% / +19.4% / +19.6%	close under 513.73; through upper BB 511.10; paper extended
AU	Sector Leaders DB 113.30	Hold	$113.19	Hold	-0.3% / +8.4% / +27.1% / +22.5%	close 113.19 still under; high 119.19 reversed
TWLO	Big Cap 20 238.48	Hold	$237.78	Bullish	+2.9% / +5.6% / +12.7% / +48.1%	close 237.78 still under — wait
IBKR	flat-base 97.84	Hold	$95.84	Bullish	+1.3% / +3.1% / +4.0% / +22.6%	close 95.84 under; vol 0.49× — wait
ANET	alt 189.82	Hold	$195.38	Bullish	+0.3% / +2.2% / +8.3% / +29.9%	through alt, +2.2% vs 21, but vol 0.39× Acc/Dis D+ — not house Buy

Don’t buy: ZS (200 not rising); OKTA (+14.6% vs 21); ETON (paper extended); HNGE (Acc/Dis E under 91.50). Banks skip CRM SNOW NOW CRCL TEAM. I&T: no setup. No delta printed → no puts. Quiet sleeves silent.

3. Today — Thursday Sep 3 tape

Weekday tape · last complete Wed Sep 2 · published Thu afternoon MT · Only house Buy is BAC (STW 55.40, 1d 21 reclaim). SHIP through upper BB → Don’t-buy today (frozen This week stays Buy). TGTX SOTD Hold wait 57.90. SOLS Don’t-buy (200 not rising). AMADY Barron’s new — no Yahoo tape. Tech Leaders table = no pivots → not Buys. TEAM is Banks skip.

SHIP through upper BB 18.49 (Wed $18.60 vs21 +8.07%, Trend Bullish, RSI 65.62) → Don't-buy today. Frozen This week still shows Buy. Kill still: close under 21 ~$17.21 or fail $16.86. Not a Hold card on Today.

Ticker	vs Tue	Tag	Wed close	Trend	9 / 21 / 50 / 200	Kill / note
BAC	$61.99 → $62.60	Buy	$62.60	Bullish	+0.5% / +0.3% / +2.1% / +15.1%	only house Buy; through STW 55.40; 1d 21 hold; kill under 21 ~62.38
SHIP	$18.01 → $18.60	Don't-buy	$18.60	Bullish	+4.9% / +8.1% / +16.8% / +41.1%	through upper BB 18.49; frozen week still Buy; kill under 21 ~17.21 or fail 16.86
SHOP	$139.82 → $141.87	Don't-buy	$141.87	Hold	−3.3% / −1.7% / +7.5% / +8.1%	still under 21; frozen week stays Hold; wait reclaim ~144.39 / pivot 158.87
FROG	$91.78 → $91.73	Hold	$91.73	Hold	−2.1% / +0.3% / +3.9% / +40.7%	under printed 98.47; 18d hold; wait, not Buy
NVDA	$217.44 → $224.41	Hold	$224.41	Bullish	+2.4% / +3.5% / +7.2% / +14.4%	under 227.92; trend Hold→Bullish; 5d hold
FIVE	$245.08 → $243.08	Hold	$243.08	Hold	−1.5% / +1.4% / +13.2% / +17.5%	under 249; 38d hold; Q2 was Wed
PLTR	$179.92 → $169.46	Hold	$169.46	Hold	−4.7% / −0.7% / +15.2% / +12.0%	lost 21 (−0.69%); Hold Jan-28 $200 call / do not add stock. RSI 52.2
NEM	$122.63 → $125.16	Hold	$125.16	Hold	−0.9% / +4.0% / +19.0% / +16.3%	standing Hold; under 134.88; holds 21 (+4.00%)
WPM	$144.93 → $150.91	Hold	$150.91	Bullish	+0.3% / +6.0% / +22.2% / +17.7%	standing Hold; under 154.17; holds 21 (+6.04%)
WDAY	$198.38 → $200.87	Hold	$200.87	Bullish	+2.4% / +7.1% / +25.1% / +25.1%	under alt 202.76; +7.11% vs 21 — wait, not Buy
MSFT	$501.02 → $496.82	Hold	$496.82	Hold	−0.3% / +2.4% / +13.5% / +15.7%	under 513.73; trend Bullish→Hold; 27d hold
AU	$108.13 → $107.83	Hold	$107.83	Hold	−3.2% / +2.8% / +20.0% / +16.3%	under 113.30; 22d hold
TWLO	$228.65 → $226.75	Hold	$226.75	Hold	−1.2% / +0.6% / +6.7% / +40.4%	under 238.48; 8d hold
IBKR	$90.39 → $89.12	Don't-buy	$89.12	Hold	−4.2% / −3.6% / −3.0% / +13.8%	still under 21; frozen week stays Hold
ANET	$189.26 → $186.10	Don't-buy	$186.10	Hold	−3.2% / −2.4% / +2.8% / +23.3%	still under 21; frozen week stays Hold
ETON	$60.43 → $61.96	Hold	$61.96	Bullish	+1.9% / +9.9% / +34.0% / +124.2%	no printed pivot; holds 21 — table dump ≠ Buy
TGTX	$56.09 → $56.90	Hold	$56.90	Bullish	+3.9% / +6.7% / +6.4% / +47.2%	SOTD 9/2 cup 57.90; close 56.90 under (also under IBD 50 59.30) — Hold wait
UBS	$54.14 → $54.90	Hold	$54.90	Bullish	+1.0% / +2.1% / +4.4% / +21.6%	under STW 55.15; holds 21 +2.06% — wait, not Buy
SCCO	$201.61 → $204.26	Hold	$204.26	Hold	−1.1% / +1.9% / +9.5% / +16.8%	under STW 219.04; holds 21 +1.87% — wait, not Buy
SOLS	$61.73 → $60.99	Don't-buy	$60.99	Hold	+2.5% / +1.8% / −4.7% / −9.8%	Barron’s 9/1; 200 EMA not rising — Don’t-buy (Wed card was Hold)
AMADY	Barron’s BUY 9/2 new	Watch	—	—	—	Amadeus ADR; pre-story $65.60. No Yahoo tape this pass — not invented. Not a house Buy.
META	$578.54 → $592.85	Watch	$592.85	Hold	+2.9% / +2.7% / −0.0% / −4.6%	2d 21 hold (+2.70%) but 200 EMA not rising — Watch / no add
FCFS	$215.56 → $220.10	Hold	$220.10	Bullish	+0.5% / +1.7% / +3.1% / +12.9%	21 reclaimed (+1.68%); Barron’s carry — Hold, not a house Buy

Don’t buy: SHIP 18.6 thru BB 18.49 (frozen week still Buy); SHOP 141.87 lost 21 (−1.74%); IBKR 89.12 lost 21; ANET 186.1 lost 21; ZS 172.73 lost 21 (−0.70%); OKTA 163.15 vs21 +9.51% chase; HNGE Acc/Dis E; SOLS 60.99 200 not rising; CXW 32.61 lost 21; ECO chase +10.61%; ERO 34.76 lost 21; SCHW 108.24 lost 21; FTNT 154.54 lost 21; EXEL 58.53 thru BB; PANW 328.48 lost 21 (−8.08%); Barron’s MAR 333.14 / BCO 107.47 / FWONK 97.4 (all below 21). Banks skip CRM SNOW NOW CRCL TEAM. Tech Leaders table dump (RNG OKTA HALO PANW FTNT PATH KARO QLYS PAYC INCY HRMY EXEL VEEV DT ETON) — no printed pivots → not Buys. AMADY Barron’s new — no Yahoo tape, not a house Buy. AAPL 344.57 / YSWY 26.34 paper only, not scored.

Banks overlay (timing only): IGV 103.42 8>21 HH+HL vs21 +0.14% — software ON. SMH 550.48 8<21 (−2.28%) — semis OFF. SOXX 501.44 8<21 (−3.77%). Do not SMS a rotation flag.

Quiet sleeves: PENG 47.59 vs 21 53.54 (−11.11%) vol 0.42× — silent DDR watch, no SMS. 1.6T / DC cooling silent. Smart Candle under-21: RKLB 63.1 (−10.28%) Bearish; AAOI 103.13 (−11.68%); JBL 299.39 (−6.69%); GLW 144.13 (−6.06%); LITE 870.58 (+0.23%) holds 21 but crowded / no paper Buy.

4. Options

• Mak + RSI overlay: puts only on Buy/Hold when delta prints 0.15–0.25 and RSI 30–50; covered calls when RSI ≥ 70 on shares owned. No delta printed this pass → no new short puts.
• BAC: house Buy, RSI 52.97 — not in the 30–50 put band (and not 70+ for a new covered call). Stock first.
• SHIP: Don’t-buy (through upper BB) — no new put.
• SILC: RSI 43.65 is in the put band, but the name is Watch / lost 21 — no new put, and CC is off (need 70+).
• META: RSI 55.18 not in the 30–50 put band, 200 not rising, Watch — no new put. CC off.
• APH / GOOG: not owned (quotes only). APH Wed $80.04 auto-adjust vs pre-split pivot 160.65 — below 21 (−0.36%); Watch until held 21 reclaim, not a 200 dip. GOOG not scored this pass. No new puts. Do not invent APH/GOOG as owned LEAPS.
• PLTR: Hold the Jan-28 $200 call / trim / do not add stock. Lost the 21 (−0.69%). RSI 52.2 — not 70+ and no shares for a covered call.
• SPCX Sep-18 125 CSP: stays Keep (acquisition, not Mak-band).

5. Barron’s / MarketWatch

• NEW Barron’s Buy AMADY (Sep 2, 7:55 pm ET, Amadeus IT Group ADR, “40% upside”). Pre-story / recent $65.60. No Yahoo tape this pass — not invented. Not a house Buy until scored 21 + paper rail.
• SOLS Barron’s 9/1 carry — Wed $60.99 vs21 +1.81% but 200 EMA not rising → Don’t-buy (Wed card was Hold).
• Carry: MAR 8/26 — Wed $333.14 below 21 (−5.65%) Don’t-buy. BCO 8/25 — $107.47 below 21 Don’t-buy. FCFS 8/22 follow-up — $220.10 +1.68% vs 21, 21 reclaimed → Hold / not house Buy. FWONK 8/19 — $97.40 below 21 Don’t-buy. AEP 8/27 follow-up — not a fresh house Buy.
• IBD SOTD 9/2 TGTX cup-with-handle 57.90 (early-entry note). Wed $56.90 under 57.90 and under IBD 50 consol 59.30; holds 21 (+6.69%) → Hold wait, not Buy.
• STW standing: WPM 154.17 Hold; UBS 55.15 Hold wait; BAC 55.40 house Buy (1d 21 reclaim); SCCO 219.04 Hold wait. NEM standing Hold.
• Paper only, not scored this pass → not Buys: AAPL Stock Analysis 344.57; YSWY IPO C&H 26.34 (Comp 22 / RS 53 / EPS 20). Hub mentions without pivots (AEM MEDP MT IBKR URBN CIEN) — not dumped as Buys.
• Tech Leaders Sep 2 table dump — no printed pivots → not Buys. TEAM is Banks skip. MarketWatch blocked (captcha / IP restrict) — no MW named picks.

6. Bottlenecks (skip held sleeve)

Photonics / MLCC / foundry sleeve already held — no new on SIVEF MRAAY TYOYY SILC FOCI ShunSin XFAB IQEPF LPKFF. PENG DDR cascade scored; quiet today.

• SILC Watch — still below 21. Covered-call only if RSI prints 70+. No add.
• IQEPF Watch — lost the 21 (−5.03%). No add.
• FOCI / ShunSin Keep on IB size — FOCI extended (+16.49% vs 21). Book complete, no new IB.
• SIVEF MRAAY TYOYY LPKFF XFAB still Watch below 21 — no average.
• PENG 47.59 vs 21 53.54 (−11.11%), vol 0.42× — stay quiet; do not SMS.
• 1.6T / DC cooling: silent (no paper + 21 setup). COHR owned Watch. AAOI/LITE crowded, not new Buys. Smart Candle sleeve daily: RKLB $63.10 vs21 −10.28% Bearish under 21; JBL $299.39 vs21 −6.69% Hold under 21; GLW $144.13 vs21 −6.06% Hold under 21; AAOI $103.13 vs21 −11.68% Hold under 21; LITE $870.58 vs21 +0.23% Hold holds 21 but crowded / no paper Buy.

7. Infra Watch

Physical/supply-chain infrastructure bottlenecks as standing research positions (energy, robotics, AI infra). Not stock picks. Not portfolio sleeve tracking — see 5. Bottlenecks for held photonics/foundry/MLCC caps. Papers + 21 still gate any add.

Methodology (T1/T2/T3)

T1 = regulatory filing / national-lab or government data / company disclosure / peer-reviewed paper. T2 = named trade press or named analyst-firm research. T3 = aggregator/general commentary — narrative only, never sole support for a number. SEO content-mill sites that repackage T1/T2 with no new reporting or named methodology are excluded on sight. Every number carries its publication date, not today’s date.

Grid equipment, not chips OPEN

Constraint: turbine/transformer lead times and interconnection queues, not HBM/DRAM. Silicon 18–24 months; grid equipment 3–7 years.

Tier	Dated evidence
T1	GE Vernova Q2’26 (2026-07-22): gas equipment backlog + slot reservations 116 GW (100 GW Q1’26; 80 GW guided YE 2025, actual 83). Booking 2031 slots now. 53 GW firm / 63 GW slots.
T2	Power Magazine 2026-01-02 (Wood Mackenzie): large power transformer lead times 128–144 weeks.
T1	LBNL Queued Up 2026 (2026-06): 2,061 GW gen/storage in US queues; median IR→COD >5 years (projects built 2025); 13% of 2000–2020 requests at COD by end-2025.
T2	TrendForce 2026-08-04: HBM/DRAM tightness projected to ease by 2027.

Exposure (mapping, not a rec): beneficiary GEV ETN VRT (backlog pricing / behind-the-meter). AI-compute names are constraint-exposed if the buildout assumes power arrives on the chip schedule. Not a Buy. House rail still papers + 21.

Trigger: GEV Q3 2026 earnings (October) — does the 2032 booking window open on schedule, or stall. Last checked 2026-08-30.

Magnet chokepoint OPEN

Constraint: refining/sintering (~China), not mining. Non-China magnet capacity does not matter until after 2028.

Tier	Dated evidence
T2	EU Parliament research service 2025-11-24: ~90% of refining/sintering capacity concentrated in China.
T1	USGS 2025-01: China ~69% of a diversifying ~390,000-ton global REO mine base.
T1	MOFCOM Announcement 70 (2025-11-07): 0.1% extraterritorial magnet license (Notice 61) suspended only until 2026-11-10. Suspension ≠ withdrawal.
T1	MP Materials 10X (DoD 8-K / company 2026): $110/kg NdPr floor; 10-year 100% offtake; commission 2028; ~10,000 mt/yr — small vs EV/wind + any humanoid case.

Exposure (mapping, not a rec): beneficiary MP (price-floor, DoD offtake). Offshore-wind / humanoid-robotics names are constraint-exposed until non-China sintering scales past 2028. Not a Buy.

Trigger: 2026-11-10 — China lets the 0.1% rule lapse, or reinstates. Binary. Last checked 2026-08-30.

Research framing for personal tracking, not investment advice.

Yahoo failures this pass: none on scored names. Options probe skipped (no invented delta). BB threshold fixed to close≥upper / bb_pos≥1.95. Deployed to invest-brief only when wrangler succeeds.

Thu Sep 3 afternoon MT publish (not 6:50am): BAC Buy (STW 55.40, 1d 21 reclaim); SHIP Don’t-buy thru BB; TGTX SOTD Hold 57.90; SOLS Don’t-buy (200 not rising); AMADY Barron’s new — no Yahoo tape. IQEPF lost 21 → Watch. PLTR 21 lost — still Hold the Jan-28 $200 call / no stock add. APH/GOOG not owned LEAPS. MW blocked. Options probe skipped (no invented delta).