Invest brief · Tuesday Sep 1, 2026 · VOL 43 NO 22

Today = weekday tape on last complete US session Mon Aug 31 (open 7:30am MT). This week = Sunday eIBD, frozen. No invented OHLC or delta.

O’Neil sell: thesis break or lost 21-EMA / failed pivot. A red day is not a sell by itself. Tags are Keep / Trim / Watch / Exit on names already in the book; Buy / Hold / Don’t-buy on new paper ideas. Bullish is not a Buy.

1. Book

Fidelity + second Roth + IB as of Sat Aug 22. Yahoo daily through Mon Aug 31 (TW names: last complete local session). O’Neil: Keep if holding the 21 and thesis intact; Watch if below 21. No add on SIVEF MRAAY TYOYY SILC FOCI ShunSin XFAB IQEPF LPKFF SPCX NVT COHR CBRS. APH/GOOG are not owned LEAPS (quotes only); later APH stock buy waits a held 21 reclaim.

Keep

Name	Where / size	Action	Price	Trend	9 / 21 / 50 / 200	Note
SPCX	Tax 10 + Roth 15 = 25	Keep	$143.69	Hold	+2.8% / +5.1% / +5.1% / n/a	holds 21 (+5.12%), 17d, 200 SMA n/a. Acquisition sleeve. Sep-18 125 CSP stays Keep. No add.
IQEPF	IRA 2,000	Keep	$0.64	Bullish	+0.4% / +2.6% / +7.0% / +64.0%	holds 21, 200 rising, vol 0.20×. Constraint sleeve. No add.
3363.TWO FOCI	IB 90	Keep	TWD 786	Bullish	+14.3% / +22.7% / +33.0% / +33.4%	TW Mon session. Holds 21 but extended (+22.7% vs 21) / through upper BB — no add. Book complete.
6451.TW ShunSin	IB 99	Keep	TWD 455	Hold	+2.5% / +3.9% / −0.9% / +33.3%	holds 21 (+3.92%), 200 rising. No new IB size.
SPAXX / FDRXX	~Tax $45.7k + IRA $1.8k + Roth2 $12.6k + HSA FDRXX $0.36k	Keep	cash	—	—	Dry powder. Do not force deploy. Margin debit −$3,250 — do not add margin risk.

Watch / no add

Name	Where / size	Action	Price	Trend	9 / 21 / 50 / 200	Note
SILC	Tax 80 + IRA 60 + Roth 60 + Roth2 10 = 210	Watch	$43.05	Hold	−3.0% / −2.1% / +0.1% / +48.5%	Still below 21 $43.96 (Mon $43.05 vs Fri $42.20). No add. Covered-call RSI 48.82 — not 70+.
META	Roth2 4	Watch	$572.34	Hold	+0.4% / −0.5% / −3.3% / −7.9%	Lost the 21 again. Fri was 1d reclaim $578.02 vs21 +0.40%. Mon −0.53%. 200 EMA not rising. No add.
INOD	IRA 100	Watch	$56.42	Bearish	−4.6% / −8.0% / −14.8% / −7.3%	below 21, 200 not rising. No add.
SIVEF	Tax 2,000	Watch	$2.76	Hold	−18.8% / −25.8% / −38.4% / n/a	Mon 8/31 print (thin OTC). Below 21. No add.
MRAAY	Roth 100	Watch	$22.47	Hold	−1.6% / −4.6% / −16.1% / +28.8%	below 21. Murata ADR. No add.
TYOYY	Tax 100 + Roth 125	Watch	$14.20	Hold	−3.7% / −10.3% / −28.4% / +20.0%	below 21. No add.
LPKFF	IRA 100	Watch	$15.23	Hold	−3.1% / −7.8% / −20.9% / +5.5%	below 21. No add.
INTC	Tax 10	Watch	$89.51	Hold	−1.7% / −5.0% / −14.0% / +22.5%	below 21. Keep size. No add.
NVT	HSA 20 + IB 10 = 30	Watch	$150.75	Hold	−3.2% / −4.6% / −5.5% / +12.4%	below 21. Vol 5.25× — still no add. No new IB size.
VPG	HSA 20	Watch	$61.81	Bearish	−5.9% / −15.3% / −36.5% / −8.6%	below 21, 200 not rising. Keep size.
CBRS	IRA 5 + IB 3 = 8	Watch	$184.24	Hold	−4.2% / −8.9% / −9.6% / n/a	below 21. No add.
COHR	Roth 5	Watch	$277.83	Hold	−4.4% / −7.5% / −12.5% / +1.4%	below 21. Crowded optics. No add.
XFAB	Tax 400 (FR)	Watch	€6.05	Bearish	−1.6% / −5.7% / −15.1% / −3.7%	Mon 8/31 Euro bar. Below 21. No add.
PLTR Jan-28 200 call ×2	Taxable	Trim size / Hold	$186.38	Bullish	+3.6% / +9.7% / +28.6% / +23.1%	Hold the Jan-28 200 call. Do not add stock. Kill: daily close under 21 near 169.84. RSI 69.32.
SMR / AMSC / MSTR / GFS	in book	Watch	—	—	—	Already in book. No add.

No new / exit-path — do not average

Name	Where / size	Action	Note
CONL MSTX OKLL BMNU BMNR QCML VELL CRCG AXTX AAOX	levered / 2×	Exit-path	No new capital. Do not average.
AREC TE UAMY TSSI ASPN IMMR NB	spec micros	Exit-path	TE also Roth2 500 + Jan-28 $7 ×2. Do not average.
CDNG EUV CCXI	Tax 100 / 100 / 200	Exit-path	No new capital / spec.
CIFR Mar-28 20 ×1	Roth call	Exit-path	Mon $15.50 · 21 $17.30 (−10.4%) Bearish. Don’t-buy paper + lottery call. Do not average.
CXDO SWKS FISV NASA NXT NNE BULL SERV APTV	dead / near-dead long calls	Exit-path	Watch/exit-path, not new buys.

Other long lottery calls still in the book (Watch/exit-path, not new buys): IBIT, RXRX, SOFI, EOSE, PATH, SYM, SMR Jan-28, AISP, XLU, ENVX, IDN, LTBR, SECZ, ADEA, LTRX, SDGR, ZTS, DT, KEEL, LAES, QXO, RDW, KTOS, RBBN, DRAM Jan-28 50, TE Jan-28 7. Taxable long put SPY 760 Aug-31 ×1 — expired Mon; not a stock thesis.

2. This week — eIBD Aug 31 · VOL 43 NO 22

Sunday paper · scored Fri Aug 28 · “Investors Prepare For Act Two.” Frozen until next weekly. Weekday 6:50 does not rewrite this block — it updates Today. No Sunday Pages publish.

Ticker	Paper	Tag	Fri close	Trend	9 / 21 / 50 / 200	Kill / note
SHIP	Spotlight cup 16.86 / alt 18.48 · 97/99/93 C-	Buy	$17.79	Bullish	+2.2% / +4.7% / +12.7% / +35.9%	holds 21 $16.99, 200 rising, under BB 18.30, vol 0.93×, RSI 59.76. Kill: close under $16.99 or fail 16.86.
SHOP	Cover STW / Big Cap 20 C&H 158.87	Hold	$152.90	Bullish	+1.3% / +5.0% / +16.9% / +16.3%	under 158.87 — wait pivot; 19d hold / 200 rising; vol 0.54×
FROG	Cover/Spotlight C&H 98.47 (range to 103.39)	Hold	$98.74	Bullish	+4.4% / +8.2% / +12.4% / +52.2%	through pivot; Fri reversed H 105.76 → L 98.01 — no chase
NVDA	Spotlight handle 227.92 · Acc/Dis D-	Hold	$217.55	Bullish	+0.1% / +1.0% / +4.4% / +11.2%	under 227.92; A6 Fri print matches Yahoo; 2d hold / 200 rising
FIVE	one-pager C&H 249	Hold	$241.89	Hold	-2.2% / +1.4% / +13.8% / +17.5%	broke out Mon, backtracked. 36d hold / 200 rising. Q2 Wed.
PLTR	extended from 163.70 cup · 8/29 high-handle 182.44	Hold	$186.29	Bullish	+4.5% / +10.8% / +29.6% / +23.1%	Hold Jan-28 $200 call / do not add stock. Trim size only.
NEM	New America consol 134.88	Hold	$127.98	Bullish	+0.1% / +6.9% / +22.6% / +19.3%	near 128; under 134.88 — Hold wait
WPM	DB 154.17 (zone to 161.88)	Hold	$153.33	Bullish	+0.8% / +8.5% / +25.1% / +20.0%	high 160.46 tagged zone then faded — under
WDAY	Cover aggressive alt 202.76	Hold	$204.72	Bullish	+4.7% / +10.3% / +30.1% / +27.3%	through alt but +10.3% vs 21 (chase) — no add
MSFT	SOTD/cover alt 513.73 / cup 466.32	Hold	$513.53	Bullish	+3.6% / +7.0% / +19.4% / +19.6%	close under 513.73; through upper BB 511.10; paper extended
AU	Sector Leaders DB 113.30	Hold	$113.19	Hold	-0.3% / +8.4% / +27.1% / +22.5%	close 113.19 still under; high 119.19 reversed
TWLO	Big Cap 20 238.48	Hold	$237.78	Bullish	+2.9% / +5.6% / +12.7% / +48.1%	close 237.78 still under — wait
IBKR	flat-base 97.84	Hold	$95.84	Bullish	+1.3% / +3.1% / +4.0% / +22.6%	close 95.84 under; vol 0.49× — wait
ANET	alt 189.82	Hold	$195.38	Bullish	+0.3% / +2.2% / +8.3% / +29.9%	through alt, +2.2% vs 21, but vol 0.39× Acc/Dis D+ — not house Buy

Don’t buy: ZS (200 not rising); OKTA (+14.6% vs 21); ETON (paper extended); HNGE (Acc/Dis E under 91.50). Banks skip CRM SNOW NOW CRCL TEAM. I&T: no setup. No delta printed → no puts. Quiet sleeves silent.

3. Today — Tuesday Sep 1 tape

Weekday tape · last complete Mon Aug 31 · Markets open 7:30am MT. Mechanical scorer flipped FROG / ANET / ERO / ECO / SCHW to Buy — house override: SHIP only.

Only house Buy is SHIP. SHOP still waits 158.87. META lost the 21 again. PENG quiet (49.08 vs 21 54.79, −10.42%, vol 0.48×).

Ticker	vs Friday	Tag	Mon close	vs 21	Kill / note
SHIP	$17.79 → $17.66	Buy	$17.66	+4.01%	still the only house Buy
SHOP	$152.90 → $147.37	Hold	$147.37	+1.55%	under 158.87; Trend Hold
FROG	$98.74 → $100.07	Hold	$100.07	+9.57%	no chase after Fri reverse; large-cap +9.57% vs 21 (cap 8%); BB pos 0.94; vol 0.79×
ANET	$195.38 → $195.69	Hold	$195.69	+2.33%	through 189.82 is not a house Buy; vol 0.64× Acc/Dis D+
IBKR	$95.84 → $97.29	Hold	$97.29	+4.52%	high 97.89 vs pivot 97.84 — wait a hold; vol 0.78×
FIVE	$241.89 → $246.84	Hold	$246.84	+3.32%	high 248.96 vs 249; Q2 Wed; wait pivot; vol 1.03×
NVDA	$217.55 → $220.78	Hold	$220.78	+2.23%	under 227.92
PLTR	$186.29 → $186.38	Hold	$186.38	+9.74%	Hold Jan-28 $200 call / do not add stock. RSI 69.32
SILC	Fri $42.20; still below 21	Watch	$43.05	−2.07%	owned — no add; RSI 48.82 not 70+ for CC
META	Fri 1d reclaim $578.02; Mon lost 21	Watch	$572.34	−0.53%	200 EMA not rising; no add
CXW	$33.81 → $33.22	Hold	$33.22	+1.55%	SMID Comp 99 table; not a Spotlight Buy

Don’t buy: ZS 188.38 (200 EMA not rising); OKTA 173.04 vs21 +18.79% thru BB; ETON paper extended; HNGE Acc/Dis E (even though 92.56 through 91.50); MAR 341.76 vs21 −4.31% Bearish; BCO 108.93 vs21 −2.76%; FWONK 99.95 vs21 −2.10%; ANF 143.08 vs21 +23.24% thru BB RSI 73.8; FCFS 214.47 vs21 −0.78% Hold not house Buy; ECO extended (+9.21% vs 21); FROG not a Buy (+9.57% vs 21). Banks skip CRM SNOW NOW CRCL TEAM.

Banks overlay (timing only): IGV 109.98 8>21 HH+HL thru BB — software ON. SMH 556.63 8<21 (−1.75%) — semis OFF. SOXX 511.04 8<21 (−2.71%). Do not SMS a rotation flag.

Quiet sleeves: PENG 49.08 vs 21 54.79 (−10.42%) vol 0.48× — silent DDR watch, no SMS. 1.6T / DC cooling silent. I&T 9/1 AMZN FTC / 8/31 AAPL CEO / META-GOOGL ad note = stubs not setups.

4. Options

• Mak + RSI overlay: puts only on Buy/Hold when delta prints 0.15–0.25 and RSI 30–50; covered calls when RSI ≥ 70 on shares owned. No delta printed this pass → no new short puts.
• SHIP: house Buy, RSI 58.78 — not in the 30–50 put band (and not 70+ for a new covered call). Stock first.
• SILC: RSI 48.82 is in the put band, but the name is Watch / lost 21 — no new put, and CC is off (need 70+).
• META: RSI 47.48 in the put band, 200 not rising, Watch — no new put. CC off.
• APH / GOOG: not owned (quotes only). APH Mon $158.55 vs21 −1.36%; GOOG $335.41 vs21 −2.32%. Later APH stock buy = held 21 reclaim + paper, not a 200 dip. No new puts.
• PLTR: Hold the Jan-28 $200 call / trim / do not add stock. RSI 69.32 — not 70+ and no shares for a covered call.
• SPCX Sep-18 125 CSP: stays Keep (acquisition, not Mak-band). SPY 760 Aug-31 long put expired Mon.

5. Barron’s / MarketWatch

• No new Barron’s Buy dated 8/29–9/1 (signed-in Stock Picks table, End Date Today; newest still AEP Aug 27 follow-up). Carry: MAR 8/26 — Mon $341.76 below 21 (−4.31%) Don’t-buy. BCO 8/25 — $108.93 below 21 Don’t-buy. FCFS 8/22 follow-up — $214.47 Hold / not a house Buy (now also below 21). FWONK 8/19 — $99.95 below 21 Don’t-buy.
• AEP 8/27 “buy while still cheap” is a follow-up of a Feb pick, not a fresh house Buy.
• I&T: no setup. 9/1 AMZN FTC, 8/31 AAPL CEO, META-GOOGL ad note are stubs, not setups. Do not dump table names. Data tables did refresh Aug 31 but no printed pivots on visible new names — not dumped.
• SOTD still Fri MSFT. Tue earnings AVGO, DELL, PANW — not Buys. SNOW is Banks skip.

6. Bottlenecks (skip held sleeve)

Photonics / MLCC / foundry sleeve already held — no new on SIVEF MRAAY TYOYY SILC FOCI ShunSin XFAB IQEPF LPKFF. PENG DDR cascade scored; quiet today.

• SILC Watch — still below 21. Covered-call only if RSI prints 70+. No add.
• FOCI / ShunSin Keep on IB size — FOCI extended (+22.7% vs 21). Book complete, no new IB.
• SIVEF MRAAY TYOYY LPKFF XFAB still Watch below 21 — no average.
• PENG 49.08 vs 21 54.79 (−10.42%), vol 0.48× — stay quiet; do not SMS.
• 1.6T / DC cooling: silent (no paper + 21 setup). COHR owned Watch. AAOI/LITE crowded, not new Buys. Smart Candle sleeve daily: RKLB $63.92 vs21 −11.11% Bearish under 21; JBL $305.26 vs21 −6.18% Hold under 21; GLW $148.73 vs21 −4.19% Hold under 21; AAOI $107.69 vs21 −9.96% Hold under 21; LITE $914.76 vs21 +5.35% Bullish holds 21 but crowded / no paper Buy.

7. Infra Watch

Physical/supply-chain infrastructure bottlenecks as standing research positions (energy, robotics, AI infra). Not stock picks. Not portfolio sleeve tracking — see 5. Bottlenecks for held photonics/foundry/MLCC caps. Papers + 21 still gate any add.

Methodology (T1/T2/T3)

T1 = regulatory filing / national-lab or government data / company disclosure / peer-reviewed paper. T2 = named trade press or named analyst-firm research. T3 = aggregator/general commentary — narrative only, never sole support for a number. SEO content-mill sites that repackage T1/T2 with no new reporting or named methodology are excluded on sight. Every number carries its publication date, not today’s date.

Grid equipment, not chips OPEN

Constraint: turbine/transformer lead times and interconnection queues, not HBM/DRAM. Silicon 18–24 months; grid equipment 3–7 years.

Tier	Dated evidence
T1	GE Vernova Q2’26 (2026-07-22): gas equipment backlog + slot reservations 116 GW (100 GW Q1’26; 80 GW guided YE 2025, actual 83). Booking 2031 slots now. 53 GW firm / 63 GW slots.
T2	Power Magazine 2026-01-02 (Wood Mackenzie): large power transformer lead times 128–144 weeks.
T1	LBNL Queued Up 2026 (2026-06): 2,061 GW gen/storage in US queues; median IR→COD >5 years (projects built 2025); 13% of 2000–2020 requests at COD by end-2025.
T2	TrendForce 2026-08-04: HBM/DRAM tightness projected to ease by 2027.

Exposure (mapping, not a rec): beneficiary GEV ETN VRT (backlog pricing / behind-the-meter). AI-compute names are constraint-exposed if the buildout assumes power arrives on the chip schedule. Not a Buy. House rail still papers + 21.

Trigger: GEV Q3 2026 earnings (October) — does the 2032 booking window open on schedule, or stall. Last checked 2026-08-30.

Magnet chokepoint OPEN

Constraint: refining/sintering (~China), not mining. Non-China magnet capacity does not matter until after 2028.

Tier	Dated evidence
T2	EU Parliament research service 2025-11-24: ~90% of refining/sintering capacity concentrated in China.
T1	USGS 2025-01: China ~69% of a diversifying ~390,000-ton global REO mine base.
T1	MOFCOM Announcement 70 (2025-11-07): 0.1% extraterritorial magnet license (Notice 61) suspended only until 2026-11-10. Suspension ≠ withdrawal.
T1	MP Materials 10X (DoD 8-K / company 2026): $110/kg NdPr floor; 10-year 100% offtake; commission 2028; ~10,000 mt/yr — small vs EV/wind + any humanoid case.

Exposure (mapping, not a rec): beneficiary MP (price-floor, DoD offtake). Offshore-wind / humanoid-robotics names are constraint-exposed until non-China sintering scales past 2028. Not a Buy.

Trigger: 2026-11-10 — China lets the 0.1% rule lapse, or reinstates. Binary. Last checked 2026-08-30.

Research framing for personal tracking, not investment advice.

Yahoo failures this pass: none on scored names. Barron’s/MW signed-in 7:20am MT: none new / carry-forward (MAR BCO FCFS FWONK; AEP follow-up). MW 9/1 META/HOOD/DELL stories are not house Buys. Options probe skipped (no invented delta). Deployed to invest-brief only when wrangler succeeds.