Invest brief · Thursday Oct 8, 2026

Pre-market · Tape = last complete session Wed Oct 7. This week frozen from Sunday eIBD Oct 4 (issue Mon Oct 5; do not rewrite). Infra carried from Fri Sep 25 (triggers unfired). Focus universe only (owned + core 12 + niche slot; /workspace/watchlists/core_universe.json). No invented OHLC or delta. Portal: invest-brief.pages.dev.

O’Neil sell: thesis break or lost 21-EMA / failed pivot. A red day is not a sell by itself. Tags are Keep / Trim / Watch / Exit on names already in the book; Buy / Hold / Don’t-buy on new paper ideas. Bullish is not a Buy. NO SMS (Buy SMS locked 2026-09-21).

Weekly Dashboard

Digest strip · Wed Oct 7 close · Fast scan before Book. Tags do not mint new paper Buys.

Buys

NVDA · MSFT

Paper Buys only (house rail).

Owned alerts

lost 21: none · Trim: none · Exit: none

Lost 21 / Trim / Exit on names already in the book.

Waiting pivots

MU · AAPL · PLTR · TSM

Hold under printed buy point — not Buys.

CSP week

No name passes Mak+RSI (Buy/Hold + RSI 30–50)

Real short puts only — no invented delta.

Weekend review

Sunday eIBD Oct 4 freeze + Wed Oct 7 tape · ~20-min digest. Jump here Sat/Sun.

Weekend review (tap to fold)

Sunday This-week freeze

Sunday eIBD Oct 4 freeze (issue Mon Oct 5) scored vs Wed Oct 7 close. This week frozen from that pass until next Sunday; Infra carried from Fri Sep 25.

Fri tape deltas

Thu focus Buys (Wed tape): NVDA / MSFT · off-list paper Buys: PANW / EXEL / IBIT / KEYS / ASX / ANET / BE
RSKD owned 500@6.95 Keep — no re-pitch
Focus-universe Holds: MU / AAPL / PLTR / TSM · off-list paper Buys collapsed below Snapshot

What needs attention

Papers mint Buys — tape alone never mints
PENG silent until 21+vol≥1×
No Buy SMS (locked 2026-09-21)

IMMX 2:30 alert scan remains PAUSED — do not revive. No SMS from this section.

1. Book

Fidelity + second Roth + IB. Yahoo daily through Wed Oct 7. Book tag flips vs Wed brief (Tue-close book): INTC: Watch → Keep (close 113.12); INOD: Keep → Watch (close 63.42); 6451.TW: Keep → Watch (close 420.5). RSKD added (500 @ $6.95 on 2026-09-22) — owned book only, not a new Buy pitch. No position changes since 9/28. Owned book per focus universe: RSKD · IQEPF · TYOYY · COHR · PENG · SPCX (25 sh, acquisition sleeve) + PLTR Jan-28 $200 call. Real options only: PLTR Jan-28 $200 call · SPCX Sep-18 $125 CSP expired 9/18 → next acquisition CSP on the SPCX Snapshot card.

Keep

Name	Where / size	Action	Price	Trend	9 / 21 / 50 / 200	Note
SPCX	Tax 10 + Roth 15 = 25	Keep	$167.60	Hold	+4.6% / +8.8% / +17.8% / +10.3%	holds 21 (+8.8%). Acquisition sleeve. Sep-18 $125 CSP expired — sleeve continues; no add. Wed $167.60. Book tag Keep.
SPAXX / FDRXX	~Tax $45.7k + IRA $1.8k + Roth2 $12.6k + HSA FDRXX $0.36k	Keep	cash	—	—	Dry powder. Do not force deploy. No new margin. Cash Keep.
PLTR Jan-28 200 call ×2	Taxable	Keep / Hold	$194.12	Bullish	+2.4% / +5.1% / +11.7% / +25.2%	Keep — holds 21 (+5.1%). Hold the Jan-28 $200 call. Do not add stock. RSI 66.16.
COHR	Roth 5	Keep	$334.56	Bullish	+4.4% / +8.2% / +11.1% / +19.2%	Keep — vs21 +8.2%. Constraint / no add.
IQEPF	IRA 2,000	Keep	$0.74	Bullish	+7.0% / +13.4% / +18.8% / +49.1%	Keep — vs21 +13.4%. Constraint / no add.
TYOYY	Tax 100 + Roth 125	Keep	$17.76	Bullish	+8.8% / +13.4% / +15.6% / +27.4%	Keep — vs21 +13.4%. Constraint / no add.
RSKD	Tax 500 @ $6.95 (2026-09-22)	Keep	$8.05	Bullish	+4.1% / +10.8% / +26.0% / +48.0%	Owned 500 @ $6.95 on 2026-09-22 — book only; do not re-pitch as a new Buy. Wed $8.05 vs21 +10.8% · RSI 73.11.

Watch / no add

Name	Where / size	Action	Price	Trend	9 / 21 / 50 / 200	Note

Other holdings (off focus list) (21)

3363.TWO · 6451.TW · AAOX · AMSC · APH · AXTI · CBRS · GFS · INOD · INTC · LPKFF · META · MRAAY · MSTR · NVT · SILC · SIVEF · SMR · TE · VPG · XFAB.PA

Owned book · IMMX thumbs (Keep + Watch)

Nested ±1σ/±2σ IMMX channel · real Yahoo OHLCV · Wed Oct 7 close. Never invent OHLC.

SPCXKeepWed Oct 7 close · $167.60

PLTRKeepWed Oct 7 close · $194.12

COHRKeepWed Oct 7 close · $334.56

PENGKeepWed Oct 7 close · $72.61

RSKDKeepWed Oct 7 close · $8.05

TYOYYKeepWed Oct 7 close · $17.76

IQEPFKeepWed Oct 7 close · $0.74

Snapshot · Owned book + focus universe

Wed Oct 07 close · The owned book comes first, then the core names plus the niche slot. Every name gets a full card. Levels come from the IMMX channel + volume shelf engine, with Fib tags as a cross-check. Tags come from the papers rail (brief data) where scored, otherwise from the tape tag on the latest close (tape never mints a Buy; with fewer than 200 bars the 200 trend is n/a). Options come from the CBOE delayed chain: Mak CSPs only on Buy/Hold with RSI 30–50, a reference strike otherwise, and an acquisition CSP for the SPCX add sleeve.

Owned book · Snapshot

Owned	Position	Book	Tag	Close	Buy zone (add)	Trigger	Stop	Options
RSKD	500 sh @ $6.95 (bought 2026-09-22)	Keep	Don't-buy	$8.05	$5.89–$5.98	$8.17	$5.61	no strike in band
IQEPF	IRA 2,000 sh	Keep	Don't-buy	$0.74	$0.50–$0.60	$0.74	$0.47	no listed options
TYOYY	Tax 100 + Roth 125 sh	Keep	Don't-buy	$17.76	$16.48–$16.73	$17.63	$15.87	no listed options
COHR	owned shares	Keep	Hold	$334.56	$257.04–$260.93	$350.89	$241.06	$295P 10-30
PENG	owned shares	Keep	Don't-buy	$72.61	$52.34–$53.13	$66.93	$44.18	no strike in band
SPCX	25 sh · long-term acquisition sleeve	Keep	Don't-buy	$167.60	$139.57–$141.68	$169.77	$128.75	ACQ $141P 10-30
PLTR	Jan-28 $200 call ×2 (no stock)	Keep	Hold	$194.12	$165.00–$172.50	$194.68	$145.83	$177.5P 10-30

ownedRSKDDon't-buy $8.05 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 73 · vs21 +10.8% · 200 ↑ · owned · tag via tape

Owned: 500 sh @ $6.95 (bought 2026-09-22) · book Keep

Bullish | Moderate conviction

FCF: Strong quarterly free cash flow ($13M) and $64M of buybacks last quarter.

Trigger$8.00 / $8.50Targets$8.50 / $9.00 / $9.50+ Support$6.00 / $6.00Risk$6.00 / $5.50 Fib tags0 $8.17

Buy plan Zone $5.89–$5.98 — Fib 0.5 retrace $5.94 of up-leg 2026-03-27 $3.70 → 2026-09-25 $8.17 lines up with VP shelf $5.80–$6.20
Breakout: close > $8.17 on ≥2.90M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $6.01
Stop $5.61 (VP shelf floor) · T1 $8.39 · T2 $8.89 · R/R 7.5 / 9.0 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: Don't-buy tag, RSI 73, out of 30–50 range
No listed put prints 0.15–0.25Δ in the 3–6 wk window, so no CSP is suggested. Nearest listed: Nov 20 $10P Δ-0.74 2.05/2.90 (straddles earnings); Nov 20 $7.5P Δ-0.34 0.55/0.65 (straddles earnings).
Covered call: owned + RSI ≥70 but no 7–45 DTE call at 0.15–0.30Δ quoted before earnings; nearest: Nov 20 $10C Δ0.27 0.25/0.40 (straddles earnings); Nov 20 $7.5C Δ0.66 1.15/1.25 (straddles earnings)

Banks overlay (timing only)IGV live · leader (RS21 +23.7pp)

Bear caseUnprofitable (margin -4.2%)

CatalystsEarnings Wed Nov 11, 2026 (Yahoo calendar; confirm with IR)

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): call-heavy tape, P/C vol 0.08 / OI 0.07; largest call OI Dec 18 '26 $7.5C (4,045); monitoring call volume above $8 trigger.

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

ownedIQEPFDon't-buy $0.74 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 64 · vs21 +13.4% · 200 ↑ · owned · tag via tape

Owned: IRA 2,000 sh · book Keep

Neutral | High conviction

FCF: Quarterly cash-flow data unavailable from Yahoo.

Trigger$0.75 / $0.75Targets$0.75 / $0.80 / $0.80+ Support$0.60 / $0.50Risk$0.50 / $0.50 Fib tags0.236 retrace $0.81

Buy plan Zone $0.50–$0.60 — No Fib retracement of a recent up-leg sits below price (every 0.5/0.618/0.786 is overhead). Zone = VP shelf $0.50–$0.60 with IMMX fast −1σ $0.59, IMMX slow −1σ $0.60
Breakout: close > $0.74 on ≥0.58M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $0.57
Stop $0.47 (swing low 2026-04-29) · T1 $0.77 · T2 $0.80 · R/R 2.6 / 3.0 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: no listed options
No listed options (CBOE has no chain for this symbol).
Covered call: no listed options

Banks overlay (timing only)SMH live · rotation flag · leader (RS21 +5.5pp)

Bear caseUnprofitable (margin -27.2%) · 23% below 52-week high $0.95

CatalystsNo dated catalyst printed in Yahoo calendar

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): no listed options (CBOE has no chain for this symbol).

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

ownedTYOYYDon't-buy $17.76 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 65 · vs21 +13.4% · 200 ↑ · owned · tag via tape

Owned: Tax 100 + Roth 125 sh · book Keep

Bullish Breakout | High conviction

FCF: Quarterly cash-flow data unavailable from Yahoo.

Trigger$17.50 / $18.50Targets$18.50 / $19.00 / $31.00+ Support$17.50 / $14.00Risk$14.00 / $12.00 Fib tags0.618 retrace $18.26 · 0.618 retrace $18.26 · 0.786 retrace $13.59 · 0.786 retrace $13.59

Buy plan Zone $16.48–$16.73 — Fib 0.618 retrace $16.60 of up-leg 2025-11-18 $4.96 → 2026-07-01 $35.44 lines up with VP shelf $13.75–$17.50
Breakout: close > $17.63 on ≥0.05M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $17.07
Stop $15.87 (swing low 2026-07-17) · T1 $18.36 · T2 $19.00 · R/R 2.4 / 3.2 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: no listed options
No listed options (CBOE has no chain for this symbol).
Covered call: no listed options

Banks overlay (timing only)XLK live · rotation flag · laggard (RS21 +14.3pp)

Bear caseRich valuation (P/E 99) · 50% below 52-week high $35.44 · Laggard vs XLK (-33 pp over 63 days)

CatalystsNo dated catalyst printed in Yahoo calendar

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): no listed options (CBOE has no chain for this symbol).

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

ownedCOHRHold $334.56 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 59 · vs21 +8.3% · 200 ↑ · owned · tag via tape

Owned: owned shares · book Keep

Neutral | High conviction

FCF: Negative quarterly free cash flow (−$493M) on $563M quarterly capex.

Trigger$351.00 / $365.00Targets$365.00 / $378.00 / $390.00+ Support$290.00 / $260.00Risk$260.00 / $251.00 Fib tags0.786 retrace $393.07

Buy plan Zone $257.04–$260.93 — Fib 0.5 retrace $258.44 of up-leg 2025-06-13 $76.88 → 2026-06-03 $440.00 lines up with VP shelf $260.00–$290.00, IMMX fast −2σ $257.97, IMMX house −1σ $258.83
Breakout: close > $350.89 on ≥9.69M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $280.69
Stop $241.06 (IMMX slow −2σ) · T1 $364.80 · T2 $377.58 · R/R 5.9 / 6.6 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: RSI 59, out of 30–50 range Reference strike — if RSI returns to 30–50: 2026-10-30 $295P · bid/ask 3.80/8.00 · Δ -0.20 · IV 63% · 33.2% annualized · ~20% assign · cost if assigned $289.10 · cash $29,500.00 · OI 90 · no 0.15–0.25Δ strike at/below the buy zone — nearest above · cash over the $12–15k IBKR plan → use the spread
No listed long put $5–10 below the short strike with a positive mid credit.
Covered call: RSI 59 < 70

Banks overlay (timing only)SMH live · rotation flag · laggard (RS21 +1.9pp)

Bear caseLatest quarter FCF −$493M on $563M capex · Rich valuation: P/E 81 trailing / 24 forward · 24% below 52-week high $440.00

CatalystsEarnings Wed Nov 04, 2026 (Yahoo calendar; confirm with IR) · Put expiry 2026-10-30 — before earnings

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): balanced tape, P/C vol 0.92 / OI 1.37; near $351 trigger: Oct 9 '26 $340C 705 vol vs 1,801 OI; unusual V/OI>1: Oct 9 '26 $370C 603 vol / 345 OI; largest call OI Nov 20 '26 $400C (3,750); monitoring call volume above $351 trigger.

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

ownedPENGDon't-buy $72.61 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 75 · vs21 +27.1% · 200 ↑ · owned · tag via tape

Owned: owned shares · book Keep

Bullish Breakout | High conviction

FCF: Negative quarterly free cash flow (−$78M) on $3M quarterly capex and $12M of buybacks last quarter.

Trigger$67.00 / $73.00Targets$73.00 / $77.00 / $85.00+ Support$51.00 / $46.00Risk$46.00 / $42.00 Fib tags0.236 retrace $73.82 · 0.236 retrace $73.82 · 0 $89.86

Buy plan Zone $52.34–$53.13 — Fib 0.5 retrace $52.95 of up-leg 2026-03-30 $16.04 → 2026-07-09 $89.86 lines up with IMMX house −1σ $52.52
Breakout: close > $66.93 on ≥3.24M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $48.99
Stop $44.18 (swing low 2026-09-15) · T1 $73.24 · T2 $77.40 · R/R 2.4 / 2.9 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: Don't-buy tag, RSI 75, out of 30–50 range
No listed put prints 0.15–0.25Δ in the 3–6 wk window, so no CSP is suggested. Nearest listed: Nov 20 $60P Δ-0.20 2.25/2.50; Nov 20 $55P Δ-0.12 1.25/1.35.
Covered call: 2026-10-16 $85C · 0.70/1.15 · Δ 0.16 · OI 1,109 (owned + RSI ≥70; per 100 sh)

Banks overlay (timing only)XLK live · rotation flag · laggard (RS21 +34.2pp)

Bear caseLatest quarter FCF −$78M on $3M capex · Laggard vs XLK (-20 pp over 63 days)

CatalystsEarnings Tue Jan 05, 2027 (Yahoo calendar; confirm with IR)

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): call-heavy tape, P/C vol 0.28 / OI 0.69; unusual V/OI>1: Oct 16 '26 $75C 8,749 vol / 3,940 OI; largest call OI Oct 16 '26 $70C (4,378); monitoring call volume above $67 trigger.

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

ownedSPCXDon't-buy $167.60 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 65 · vs21 +8.8% · 200 n/a · owned · tag via tape

Owned: 25 sh · long-term acquisition sleeve · book Keep

Bullish | High conviction

EMA200 / 200-trend n/a (81 bars < 200)

FCF: Negative quarterly free cash flow (−$16,819M) on $19,238M quarterly capex and $80M of buybacks last quarter.

Trigger$170.00 / $177.00Targets$177.00 / $193.00 / $200.00+ Support$148.00 / $132.00Risk$132.00 / $105.00 Fib tags0.618 retrace $179.49 · 0.618 retrace $179.49 · 0.786 retrace $199.79 · 0.236 retrace $133.34 · 0.236 retrace $133.34 · 0 $104.83

Buy plan Zone $139.57–$141.68 — Fib 0.5 retrace $140.62 of up-leg 2026-08-03 $104.83 → 2026-10-06 $176.42 lines up with VP shelf $132.00–$148.00
Breakout: close > $169.77 on ≥140.15M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $144.75
Stop $128.75 (VP shelf floor) · T1 $177.18 · T2 $193.00 · R/R 3.1 / 4.4 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Acquisition CSP (add path, not Mak income rule) Sep-18 $125 CSP expired 2026-09-18. Acquisition CSP (add path; fine to be assigned): 2026-10-30 $141P · bid/ask 0.70/0.78 · Δ -0.08 · IV 50% · 8.7% annualized · ~8% assign · cost if assigned $140.26 (16.3% under close) · cash $14,100.00 · OI 436
Alt: 2026-10-30 $140P 0.64/0.69 Δ-0.07 OI 2313
Alt: 2026-10-30 $139P 0.59/0.66 Δ-0.06 OI 209
Covered call: no covered calls (acquisition sleeve)

Banks overlay (timing only)ITA dead · leader (RS21 +18.0pp)

Bear caseShort history (81 bars): no 200-day trend yet · Latest quarter FCF −$16.82B on $19.2B capex · Rich valuation (P/E 87)

CatalystsEarnings Tue Nov 03, 2026 (Yahoo calendar; confirm with IR) · Put expiry 2026-10-30 — before earnings

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): balanced tape, P/C vol 0.85 / OI 1.06; near $170 trigger: Oct 9 '26 $170C 70,915 vol vs 16,995 OI; unusual V/OI>1: Oct 9 '26 $165P 81,301 vol / 15,633 OI; largest call OI Dec 18 '26 $200C (39,360); monitoring call volume above $170 trigger.

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

ownedPLTRHold $194.12 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 66 · vs21 +5.1% · 200 ↑ · leader · tag via papers rail

Owned: Jan-28 $200 call ×2 (no stock) · book Keep · call 2028-01-21 $200C 49.15/50.55 (mid 49.85) · Δ 0.65 · IV 54% · OI 11,022

Bullish | High conviction

FCF: Strong quarterly free cash flow ($1,202M).

Trigger$195.00 / $212.00Targets$212.00 / $224.00 / $240.00+ Support$172.00 / $165.00Risk$165.00 / $149.00 Fib tags0 $194.78 · 0.236 retrace $173.92 · 0.5 retrace $150.57

Buy plan Zone $165.00–$172.50 — No Fib retracement of a recent up-leg sits below price (every 0.5/0.618/0.786 is overhead). Zone = VP shelf $165.00–$172.50 with IMMX fast −2σ $175.96, IMMX slow −2σ $174.34
Breakout: close > $194.68 on ≥46.65M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $169.75
Stop $145.83 (swing low 2026-03-13) · T1 $211.51 · T2 $223.90 · R/R 1.9 / 2.4 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: RSI 66, out of 30–50 range Reference strike — if RSI returns to 30–50: 2026-10-30 $177.5P · bid/ask 2.31/2.39 · Δ -0.19 · IV 44% · 22.0% annualized · ~19% assign · cost if assigned $175.15 · cash $17,750.00 · OI 388 · no 0.15–0.25Δ strike at/below the buy zone — nearest above · cash over the $12–15k IBKR plan → use the spread
Bull put spread: 2026-10-30 177.5/172.5 · credit 0.77 mid (0.65 natural) · max risk $423.00 · 18.2% on risk · breakeven $176.73
Covered call: owned via Jan-28 $200 call ×2, not shares — no covered call

Banks overlay (timing only)IGV live · leader (RS21 +7.0pp)

Bear caseRich valuation: P/E 167 trailing / 83 forward

CatalystsEarnings Mon Nov 02, 2026 (Yahoo calendar; confirm with IR) · Put expiry 2026-10-30 — before earnings

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): call-heavy tape, P/C vol 0.57 / OI 1.05; near $195 trigger: Oct 9 '26 $195C 34,059 vol vs 17,859 OI; unusual V/OI>1: Oct 9 '26 $195C 34,059 vol / 17,859 OI; largest call OI Dec 18 '26 $175C (52,299); monitoring call volume above $195 trigger.

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

Focus universe · ranked (most attractive first)

Ranking: Buy > Hold > Don't-buy, then closest to the zone or trigger, then best R/R. Owned names link to their card above.

#	Name	Tag	Close	Buy zone	Trigger	Stop	T1	R/R	to zone / trigger	Put (✅ = qualifies)
1	NVDA	Buy	$237.47	$202.99–$207.50	$242.88	$196.55	$246.09	4.7	12.6% / 2.3%	$220P 11-13
2	MSFT	Buy	$529.76	$436.70–$450.51	$532.85	$402.85	$563.24	2.9	15.0% / 0.6%	$507.5P 10-23
3	AVGO	Hold	$376.51	$332.05–$337.62	$375.91	$323.51	$383.63	4.3	10.3% / 0.0%	$350P 10-30
4	MU	Hold	$1,088.00	$900.00–$920.00	$1,108.72	$865.84	$1,168.39	5.9	15.4% / 1.9%	$980P 11-06
5	AAPL	Hold	$336.67	$292.50–$296.92	$344.27	$284.00	$352.96	5.4	11.8% / 2.3%	$320P 10-30
6	TSM	Hold	$472.20	$405.00–$415.00	$475.51	$379.99	$499.29	3.0	12.1% / 0.7%	$440P 11-06
7	GOOGL	Hold	$350.50	$320.53–$325.38	$355.35	$310.23	$364.17	3.2	7.2% / 1.4%	$332.5P 10-23
8	AMZN	Hold	$259.92	$240.88–$245.00	$255.19	$228.96	$267.56	1.8	5.7% / 0.0%	$245P 10-23
9	VSH	Hold	$36.87	$33.60–$34.02	$37.76	$32.45	$39.30	4.0	7.7% / 2.4%	no strike in band
10	PLTR · owned	Hold	$194.12	$165.00–$172.50	$194.68	$145.83	$211.51	1.9	11.1% / 0.3%	$177.5P 10-30
11	TSLA	Don't-buy	$377.81	$358.16–$367.14	$384.04	$348.50	$413.90	3.6	2.8% / 1.6%	$345P 10-30
12	NFLX	Don't-buy	$69.70	$66.00–$67.00	$72.38	$64.19	$79.23	5.5	3.9% / 3.8%	$63P 11-13
13	META	Don't-buy	$721.31	$647.70–$657.49	$756.59	$622.16	$805.91	5.0	8.8% / 4.9%	$680P 10-23

Off-list paper Buys (7)

PANW · KEYS · ASX · ANET · EXEL · IBIT · BE

#1NVDABuy $237.47 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 64 · vs21 +4.1% · 200 ↑ · mega · tag via papers rail

Bullish | High conviction

FCF: Strong quarterly free cash flow ($21,400M) and $19,732M of buybacks last quarter.

Trigger$243.00 / $246.00Targets$246.00 / $261.00 / $280.00+ Support$225.00 / $208.00Risk$208.00 / $199.00 Fib tags0 $243.37 · 0 $243.37 · 0 $243.37 · 1.272 ext $260.55 · 1.618 ext $282.40

Buy plan Zone $202.99–$207.50 — Fib 0.5 retrace $203.63 of up-leg 2026-03-30 $163.90 → 2026-10-06 $243.37 lines up with VP shelf $207.50–$225.00, IMMX house −2σ $204.25, EMA200 $202.99
Breakout: close > $242.88 on ≥168.29M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $222.43
Stop $196.55 (swing low 2026-06-09) · T1 $246.09 · T2 $260.86 · R/R 4.7 / 6.4 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: RSI 64, out of 30–50 range Reference strike — if RSI returns to 30–50: 2026-11-13 $220P · bid/ask 2.87/2.97 · Δ -0.20 · IV 32% · 13.5% annualized · ~20% assign · cost if assigned $217.08 · cash $22,000.00 · OI 1,194 · no 0.15–0.25Δ strike at/below the buy zone — nearest above · cash over the $12–15k IBKR plan → use the spread
Bull put spread: 2026-11-13 220/215 · credit 0.83 mid (0.73 natural) · max risk $417.00 · 19.9% on risk · breakeven $219.17
Covered call: not owned

Banks overlay (timing only)SMH live · rotation flag · laggard (RS21 -3.6pp)

Bear caseNo red flags in Yahoo data; main risk is a break of the $196.55 stop (market beta)

CatalystsEarnings Tue Nov 17, 2026 (Yahoo calendar; confirm with IR) · Put expiry 2026-11-13 — before earnings

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): balanced tape, P/C vol 0.77 / OI 0.89; near $243 trigger: Oct 9 '26 $240C 65,975 vol vs 76,662 OI; unusual V/OI>1: Oct 9 '26 $237.5C 43,929 vol / 14,219 OI; largest call OI Jan 15 '27 $200C (286,784); monitoring call volume above $243 trigger.

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

#2MSFTBuy $529.76 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 68 · vs21 +4.1% · 200 ↑ · mega · tag via papers rail

Bullish | High conviction

FCF: Softer quarterly free cash flow ($19,639M) and $4,579M of buybacks last quarter.

Trigger$533.00 / $563.00Targets$563.00 / $590.00 / $635.00+ Support$490.00 / $480.00Risk$480.00 / $468.00 Fib tags0 $535.69 · 1.272 ext $586.59 · 0.236 retrace $491.52 · 0.382 retrace $464.20

Buy plan Zone $436.70–$450.51 — Fib 0.5 retrace $445.00 of up-leg 2025-04-07 $340.79 → 2025-10-28 $549.20 lines up with IMMX house −2σ $436.70, EMA200 $450.51
Breakout: close > $532.85 on ≥38.24M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $484.04
Stop $402.85 (swing low 2026-05-27) · T1 $563.24 · T2 $589.72 · R/R 2.9 / 3.6 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: RSI 68, out of 30–50 range Reference strike — if RSI returns to 30–50: 2026-10-23 $507.5P · bid/ask 2.81/3.25 · Δ -0.19 · IV 25% · 14.5% annualized · ~19% assign · cost if assigned $504.47 · cash $50,750.00 · OI 69 · shorter than 3 wk to stay before earnings; no 0.15–0.25Δ strike at/below the buy zone — nearest above · cash over the $12–15k IBKR plan → use the spread
Bull put spread: 2026-10-23 507.5/502.5 · credit 0.85 mid (0.46 natural) · max risk $415.00 · 20.5% on risk · breakeven $506.65
Covered call: not owned

Banks overlay (timing only)IGV live · leader (RS21 +0.3pp)

Bear caseQuarterly FCF down 23% y/y

CatalystsEarnings Wed Oct 28, 2026 (Yahoo calendar; confirm with IR) · Ex-dividend Nov 18, 2026 · Put expiry 2026-10-23 — before earnings

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): balanced tape, P/C vol 0.77 / OI 0.57; near $533 trigger: Oct 9 '26 $530C 7,005 vol vs 9,417 OI; unusual V/OI>1: Oct 9 '26 $527.5P 9,575 vol / 4,328 OI; largest call OI Dec 18 '26 $575C (132,311); monitoring call volume above $533 trigger.

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

#3AVGOHold $376.51 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 59 · vs21 +4.6% · 200 ↑ · mega · tag via tape

Bullish Breakout Attempt | Moderate conviction

FCF: Strong quarterly free cash flow ($13,665M).

Trigger$376.00 / $384.00Targets$384.00 / $400.00 / $415.00+ Support$360.00 / $335.00Risk$335.00 / $312.00 Fib tags0.236 retrace $372.52 · 0.382 retrace $395.60 · 0.5 retrace $414.26 · 0 $335.20 · 0 $335.20

Buy plan Zone $332.05–$337.62 — Fib 0.618 retrace $337.62 of up-leg 2025-08-20 $279.31 → 2026-08-10 $431.94 lines up with VP shelf $335.00–$360.00, IMMX fast −1σ $333.85, IMMX slow −1σ $332.05, IMMX house −1σ $337.36
Breakout: close > $375.91 on ≥32.62M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $354.82
Stop $323.51 (swing low 2026-01-08) · T1 $383.63 · T2 $399.95 · R/R 4.3 / 5.7 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: RSI 59, out of 30–50 range Reference strike — if RSI returns to 30–50: 2026-10-30 $350P · bid/ask 3.90/4.15 · Δ -0.20 · IV 37% · 19.1% annualized · ~20% assign · cost if assigned $345.97 · cash $35,000.00 · OI 2,317 · no 0.15–0.25Δ strike at/below the buy zone — nearest above · cash over the $12–15k IBKR plan → use the spread
Bull put spread: 2026-10-30 350/345 · credit 0.94 mid (0.70 natural) · max risk $406.00 · 23.2% on risk · breakeven $349.06
Covered call: not owned

Banks overlay (timing only)SMH live · rotation flag · laggard (RS21 -6.6pp)

Bear case$0 buybacks last quarter · 24% below 52-week high $495.00

CatalystsEarnings Wed Dec 09, 2026 (Yahoo calendar; confirm with IR) · Put expiry 2026-10-30 — before earnings

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): call-heavy tape, P/C vol 0.46 / OI 0.96; near $376 trigger: Oct 9 '26 $380C 7,526 vol vs 4,310 OI; unusual V/OI>1: Oct 9 '26 $380C 7,526 vol / 4,310 OI; largest call OI Jan 15 '27 $500C (23,016); monitoring call volume above $376 trigger.

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

#4MUHold $1,088.00 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 60 · vs21 +4.7% · 200 ↑ · leader · tag via papers rail

Bullish | High conviction

FCF: Strong quarterly free cash flow ($17,562M).

Trigger$1,109.00 / $1,168.00Targets$1,168.00 / $1,255.00 / $1,415.00+ Support$920.00 / $900.00Risk$900.00 / $879.00 Fib tags0 $1,254.81 · 0.382 retrace $927.65

Buy plan Zone $900.00–$920.00 — No Fib retracement of a recent up-leg sits below price (every 0.5/0.618/0.786 is overhead). Zone = VP shelf $900.00–$920.00
Breakout: close > $1,108.72 on ≥41.71M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $898.23
Stop $865.84 (swing low 2026-08-24) · T1 $1,168.39 · T2 $1,254.81 · R/R 5.9 / 7.8 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: RSI 60, out of 30–50 range Reference strike — if RSI returns to 30–50: 2026-11-06 $980P · bid/ask 15.55/18.85 · Δ -0.20 · IV 48% · 22.1% annualized · ~20% assign · cost if assigned $962.80 · cash $98,000.00 · OI 230 · no 0.15–0.25Δ strike at/below the buy zone — nearest above · cash over the $12–15k IBKR plan → use the spread
Bull put spread: 2026-11-06 980/975 · credit 0.32 mid (-2.20 natural) · max risk $468.00 · 6.8% on risk · breakeven $979.68
Covered call: not owned

Banks overlay (timing only)SMH live · rotation flag · laggard (RS21 -0.2pp)

Bear case$0 buybacks last quarter

CatalystsEarnings Wed Dec 23, 2026 (Yahoo calendar; confirm with IR) · Ex-dividend Oct 13, 2026 · Put expiry 2026-11-06 — before earnings

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): call-heavy tape, P/C vol 0.49 / OI 1.00; near $1109 trigger: Oct 9 '26 $1100C 41,162 vol vs 10,307 OI; unusual V/OI>1: Oct 9 '26 $1100C 41,162 vol / 10,307 OI; largest call OI Dec 18 '26 $1200C (16,060); monitoring call volume above $1109 trigger.

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

#5AAPLHold $336.67 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 58 · vs21 +1.4% · 200 ↑ · mega · tag via papers rail

Bullish | High conviction

FCF: Strong quarterly free cash flow ($31,914M) and $25,105M of buybacks last quarter.

Trigger$344.00 / $353.00Targets$353.00 / $374.00 / $400.00+ Support$330.00 / $300.00Risk$300.00 / $287.00 Fib tags0 $345.34 · 1.272 ext $369.75 · 1.618 ext $400.79 · 0.5 retrace $300.48 · 0.5 retrace $300.48 · 0.618 retrace $289.89

Buy plan Zone $292.50–$296.92 — Fib 0.5 retrace $294.05 of up-leg 2026-01-20 $242.76 → 2026-09-22 $345.34 lines up with EMA200 $295.37
Breakout: close > $344.27 on ≥62.54M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $326.87
Stop $284.00 (swing low 2026-06-10) · T1 $352.96 · T2 $374.13 · R/R 5.4 / 7.4 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: RSI 58, out of 30–50 range Reference strike — if RSI returns to 30–50: 2026-10-30 $320P · bid/ask 2.08/2.26 · Δ -0.19 · IV 25% · 11.3% annualized · ~19% assign · cost if assigned $317.83 · cash $32,000.00 · OI 6,070 · no 0.15–0.25Δ strike at/below the buy zone — nearest above · cash over the $12–15k IBKR plan → use the spread
Bull put spread: 2026-10-30 320/315 · credit 0.66 mid (0.51 natural) · max risk $434.00 · 15.2% on risk · breakeven $319.34
Covered call: not owned

Banks overlay (timing only)XLK live · rotation flag · laggard (RS21 -0.9pp)

Bear caseNo red flags in Yahoo data; main risk is a break of the $284.00 stop (market beta)

CatalystsEarnings Mon Nov 02, 2026 (Yahoo calendar; confirm with IR) · Put expiry 2026-10-30 — before earnings

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): call-heavy tape, P/C vol 0.54 / OI 0.76; near $344 trigger: Oct 9 '26 $340C 41,381 vol vs 19,214 OI; unusual V/OI>1: Oct 9 '26 $340C 41,381 vol / 19,214 OI; largest call OI Oct 16 '26 $340C (107,573); monitoring call volume above $344 trigger.

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

#6TSMHold $472.20 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 65 · vs21 +4.4% · 200 ↑ · leader · tag via papers rail

Bullish | Moderate conviction

FCF: Strong quarterly free cash flow (NT$274,970M, reported in TWD).

Trigger$476.00 / $499.00Targets$499.00 / $529.00 / $570.00+ Support$415.00 / $405.00Risk$405.00 / $385.00 Fib tags1.272 ext $522.48 · 1.618 ext $567.02 · 0.618 retrace $407.92 · 0.618 retrace $407.92 · 0.786 retrace $386.29

Buy plan Zone $405.00–$415.00 — No Fib retracement of a recent up-leg sits below price (every 0.5/0.618/0.786 is overhead). Zone = VP shelf $405.00–$415.00 with IMMX house −2σ $406.86
Breakout: close > $475.51 on ≥14.35M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $410.00
Stop $379.99 (swing low 2026-07-17) · T1 $499.29 · T2 $529.25 · R/R 3.0 / 4.0 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: RSI 65, out of 30–50 range Reference strike — if RSI returns to 30–50: 2026-11-06 $440P · bid/ask 5.00/5.70 · Δ -0.20 · IV 33% · 15.3% annualized · ~20% assign · cost if assigned $434.65 · cash $44,000.00 · OI 181 · earnings Oct 15 sits inside every 3–6 wk expiry — wait for the print; no 0.15–0.25Δ strike at/below the buy zone — nearest above · cash over the $12–15k IBKR plan → use the spread
Bull put spread: 2026-11-06 440/435 · credit 1.13 mid (0.55 natural) · max risk $387.00 · 29.2% on risk · breakeven $438.87
Covered call: not owned

Banks overlay (timing only)SMH live · rotation flag · laggard (RS21 -1.1pp)

Bear caseNo red flags in Yahoo data; main risk is a break of the $379.99 stop (market beta)

CatalystsEarnings Thu Oct 15, 2026 (Yahoo calendar; confirm with IR) · Ex-dividend Dec 09, 2026 · Put expiry 2026-11-06 — straddles earnings

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): balanced tape, P/C vol 0.93 / OI 1.07; near $476 trigger: Oct 9 '26 $477.5C 3,007 vol vs 3,531 OI; unusual V/OI>1: Oct 9 '26 $450P 9,108 vol / 3,783 OI; largest call OI Jan 15 '27 $560C (20,739); monitoring call volume above $476 trigger.

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

#7GOOGLHold $350.50 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 56 · vs21 +1.7% · 200 ↑ · mega · tag via tape

Neutral | High conviction

FCF: Negative quarterly free cash flow (−$5,855M) on $44,924M quarterly capex.

Trigger$355.00 / $364.00Targets$364.00 / $376.00 / $387.00+ Support$340.00 / $330.00Risk$330.00 / $319.00 Fib tags0.5 retrace $359.39 · 0.5 retrace $359.39 · 0.5 retrace $359.39 · 0.382 retrace $370.89 · 0.236 retrace $385.11 · 0.786 retrace $331.52 · 0.786 retrace $331.52

Buy plan Zone $320.53–$325.38 — Fib 0.5 retrace $321.67 of up-leg 2025-10-10 $235.23 → 2026-05-18 $408.10 lines up with IMMX slow −2σ $321.76, IMMX house −1σ $324.25
Breakout: close > $355.35 on ≥36.54M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $335.53
Stop $310.23 (swing low 2026-07-23) · T1 $364.17 · T2 $375.76 · R/R 3.2 / 4.1 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: RSI 56, out of 30–50 range Reference strike — if RSI returns to 30–50: 2026-10-23 $332.5P · bid/ask 2.20/2.45 · Δ -0.19 · IV 30% · 17.1% annualized · ~19% assign · cost if assigned $330.17 · cash $33,250.00 · OI 142 · shorter than 3 wk to stay before earnings; no 0.15–0.25Δ strike at/below the buy zone — nearest above · cash over the $12–15k IBKR plan → use the spread
Bull put spread: 2026-10-23 332.5/327.5 · credit 0.79 mid (0.48 natural) · max risk $421.00 · 18.8% on risk · breakeven $331.71
Covered call: not owned

Banks overlay (timing only)XLC dead · leader (RS21 +3.5pp)

Bear caseLatest quarter FCF −$5.86B on $44.9B capex · $0 buybacks last quarter

CatalystsEarnings Wed Oct 28, 2026 (Yahoo calendar; confirm with IR) · Put expiry 2026-10-23 — before earnings

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): call-heavy tape, P/C vol 0.44 / OI 0.64; near $355 trigger: Oct 9 '26 $355C 15,120 vol vs 15,665 OI; unusual V/OI>1: Oct 9 '26 $350C 17,519 vol / 13,302 OI; largest call OI Oct 16 '26 $375C (66,412); monitoring call volume above $355 trigger.

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

#8AMZNHold $259.92 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 58 · vs21 +2.8% · 200 ↑ · mega · tag via tape

Bullish Breakout Attempt | Moderate conviction

FCF: Negative quarterly free cash flow (−$18,171M) on $44,203M quarterly capex.

Trigger$255.00 / $268.00Targets$268.00 / $279.00 / $287.00+ Support$250.00 / $245.00Risk$245.00 / $232.00 Fib tags0.5 retrace $255.24 · 0 $287.20 · 0.618 retrace $247.69 · 0.618 retrace $247.69 · 0.618 retrace $247.69

Buy plan Zone $240.88–$245.00 — Fib 0.5 retrace $241.60 of up-leg 2026-02-17 $196.00 → 2026-08-03 $287.20 lines up with VP shelf $245.00–$250.00, IMMX fast −1σ $244.71, IMMX fast −2σ $240.88, IMMX slow −1σ $243.42, IMMX house −1σ $241.55, EMA200 $244.13
Breakout: close > $255.19 on ≥55.51M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $247.36
Stop $228.96 (IMMX slow −2σ) · T1 $267.56 · T2 $278.56 · R/R 1.8 / 2.5 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: RSI 58, out of 30–50 range Reference strike — if RSI returns to 30–50: 2026-10-23 $245P · bid/ask 1.30/1.36 · Δ -0.16 · IV 30% · 13.2% annualized · ~16% assign · cost if assigned $243.67 · cash $24,500.00 · OI 3,128 · shorter than 3 wk to stay before earnings · cash over the $12–15k IBKR plan → use the spread
Bull put spread: 2026-10-23 245/240 · credit 0.58 mid (0.53 natural) · max risk $442.00 · 13.1% on risk · breakeven $244.42
Covered call: not owned

Banks overlay (timing only)XLY mixed · leader (RS21 +3.2pp)

Bear caseLatest quarter FCF −$18.17B on $44.2B capex

CatalystsEarnings Thu Oct 29, 2026 (Yahoo calendar; confirm with IR) · Put expiry 2026-10-23 — before earnings

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): call-heavy tape, P/C vol 0.38 / OI 0.68; near $255 trigger: Oct 9 '26 $260C 53,811 vol vs 17,052 OI; unusual V/OI>1: Oct 9 '26 $260C 53,811 vol / 17,052 OI; largest call OI Jan 15 '27 $275C (66,507); monitoring call volume above $255 trigger.

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

#9VSHHold $36.87 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 62 · vs21 +8.4% · 200 ↑ · leader · tag via tape

Bullish | High conviction

FCF: Positive quarterly free cash flow ($10M).

Trigger$38.00 / $39.00Targets$39.00 / $42.00 / $60.00+ Support$31.00 / $29.00Risk$29.00 / $26.00 Fib tags0.618 retrace $39.06 · 0.618 retrace $39.06 · 0.786 retrace $30.86

Buy plan Zone $33.60–$34.02 — Fib 0.618 retrace $33.60 of up-leg 2025-11-21 $11.56 → 2026-06-18 $69.25 lines up with EMA21 $34.02
Breakout: close > $37.76 on ≥5.73M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $30.19
Stop $32.45 (swing low 2026-07-17) · T1 $39.30 · T2 $41.86 · R/R 4.0 / 5.9 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: RSI 62, out of 30–50 range
No listed put prints 0.15–0.25Δ in the 3–6 wk window, so no CSP is suggested. Nearest listed: Nov 20 $30P Δ-0.19 1.00/1.35 (straddles earnings); Nov 20 $25P Δ-0.08 0.25/0.65 (straddles earnings).
Covered call: not owned

Banks overlay (timing only)SMH live · rotation flag · laggard (RS21 +8.6pp)

Bear caseRich valuation: P/E 194 trailing / 21 forward · 47% below 52-week high $69.47 · Laggard vs SMH (-19 pp over 63 days)

CatalystsEarnings Wed Nov 04, 2026 (Yahoo calendar; confirm with IR)

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): call-heavy tape, P/C vol 0.11 / OI 1.03; near $38 trigger: Oct 16 '26 $40C 839 vol vs 6,666 OI; largest call OI Nov 20 '26 $65C (7,567); monitoring call volume above $38 trigger.

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

#11TSLADon't-buy $377.81 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 58 · vs21 +3.0% · 200 ↓ · mega · tag via tape

Bullish | High conviction

FCF: Negative quarterly free cash flow (−$1,099M) on $5,796M quarterly capex.

Trigger$384.00 / $414.00Targets$414.00 / $433.00 / $450.00+ Support$355.00 / $330.00Risk$330.00 / $297.00 Fib tags0.786 retrace $420.01 · 0.786 retrace $420.01 · 1.0 $453.40 · 0.382 retrace $356.98 · 0.236 retrace $334.20 · 0.236 retrace $334.20 · 0 $297.38

Buy plan Zone $358.16–$367.14 — Fib 0.5 retrace $363.30 of up-leg 2025-06-05 $273.21 → 2026-05-13 $453.40 lines up with IMMX fast −1σ $367.14, IMMX fast −2σ $358.16, EMA21 $366.73
Breakout: close > $384.04 on ≥51.27M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $349.45
Stop $348.50 (swing low 2026-09-15) · T1 $413.90 · T2 $432.86 · R/R 3.6 / 5.0 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: Don't-buy tag, RSI 58, out of 30–50 range Reference strike — if it turns Hold: 2026-10-30 $345P · bid/ask 4.90/5.05 · Δ -0.20 · IV 46% · 23.9% annualized · ~20% assign · cost if assigned $340.03 · cash $34,500.00 · OI 1,150 · earnings Oct 21 sits inside every 3–6 wk expiry — wait for the print · cash over the $12–15k IBKR plan → use the spread
Bull put spread: 2026-10-30 345/340 · credit 0.97 mid (0.85 natural) · max risk $403.00 · 24.1% on risk · breakeven $344.03
Covered call: not owned

Banks overlay (timing only)XLY mixed · laggard (RS21 +4.7pp)

Bear caseLatest quarter FCF −$1.10B on $5.8B capex · Rich valuation: P/E 350 trailing / 176 forward · 24% below 52-week high $498.83

CatalystsEarnings Wed Oct 21, 2026 (Yahoo calendar; confirm with IR) · Put expiry 2026-10-30 — straddles earnings

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): balanced tape, P/C vol 0.81 / OI 0.79; near $384 trigger: Oct 9 '26 $380C 34,075 vol vs 11,133 OI; unusual V/OI>1: Oct 9 '26 $375P 34,413 vol / 3,694 OI; largest call OI Jan 15 '27 $960C (112,001); monitoring call volume above $384 trigger.

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

#12NFLXDon't-buy $69.70 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 41 · vs21 -2.9% · 200 ↓ · mega · tag via tape

Neutral-to-Bullish Demand Test | Moderate conviction

FCF: Softer quarterly free cash flow ($1,525M) and $4,714M of buybacks last quarter.

Trigger$72.00 / $79.00Targets$79.00 / $84.00 / $86.00+ Support$67.00 / $66.00Risk$66.00 / $64.00 Fib tags0.5 retrace $87.02 · 0 $65.08 · 0 $65.08

Buy plan Zone $66.00–$67.00 — No Fib retracement of a recent up-leg sits below price (every 0.5/0.618/0.786 is overhead). Zone = VP shelf $66.00–$67.00 with IMMX fast −1σ $66.59, IMMX slow −2σ $65.51, IMMX house −1σ $66.28
Breakout: close > $72.38 on ≥45.71M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $66.11
Stop $64.19 (swing low 2026-07-17) · T1 $79.23 · T2 $83.60 · R/R 5.5 / 7.4 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: Don't-buy tag Reference strike — if it turns Hold: 2026-11-13 $63P · bid/ask 0.61/1.69 · Δ -0.20 · IV 43% · 18.5% annualized · ~20% assign · cost if assigned $61.85 · cash $6,300.00 · OI 105 · earnings Oct 20 sits inside every 3–6 wk expiry — wait for the print
No listed long put $5–10 below the short strike with a positive mid credit.
Covered call: not owned

Banks overlay (timing only)XLC dead · laggard (RS21 -9.3pp)

Bear caseQuarterly FCF down 33% y/y · 44% below 52-week high $124.86 · Below a falling 200 EMA

CatalystsEarnings Tue Oct 20, 2026 (Yahoo calendar; confirm with IR) · Put expiry 2026-11-13 — straddles earnings

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): call-heavy tape, P/C vol 0.34 / OI 0.87; near $72 trigger: Oct 9 '26 $70C 38,306 vol vs 21,702 OI; unusual V/OI>1: Oct 9 '26 $70C 38,306 vol / 21,702 OI; largest call OI Jan 15 '27 $41C (100,566); monitoring call volume above $72 trigger.

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

#13METADon't-buy $721.31 · 2026-10-07 · RSI 58 · vs21 +2.4% · 200 ↑ · mega · tag via papers rail

Neutral | Moderate conviction

FCF: Softer quarterly free cash flow ($1,746M).

Trigger$757.00 / $806.00Targets$806.00 / $854.00 / $920.00+ Support$570.00 / $540.00Risk$540.00 / $524.00 Fib tags1.272 ext $849.38 · 1.0 $524.08

Buy plan Zone $647.70–$657.49 — Fib 0.5 retrace $649.59 of up-leg 2026-03-27 $519.37 → 2026-09-24 $779.82 lines up with IMMX slow −1σ $655.60
Breakout: close > $756.59 on ≥27.70M sh (1.4× 50d) · stop $555.71
Stop $622.16 (swing low 2025-12-12) · T1 $805.91 · T2 $854.26 · R/R 5.0 / 6.6 from zone mid

Options (CBOE delayed) · Not qualified: Don't-buy tag, RSI 58, out of 30–50 range Reference strike — if it turns Hold: 2026-10-23 $680P · bid/ask 5.85/6.15 · Δ -0.20 · IV 35% · 21.5% annualized · ~20% assign · cost if assigned $674.00 · cash $68,000.00 · OI 1,256 · shorter than 3 wk to stay before earnings; no 0.15–0.25Δ strike at/below the buy zone — nearest above · cash over the $12–15k IBKR plan → use the spread
Bull put spread: 2026-10-23 680/675 · credit 0.92 mid (0.65 natural) · max risk $408.00 · 22.5% on risk · breakeven $679.08
Covered call: not owned

Banks overlay (timing only)XLC dead · leader (RS21 +17.6pp)

Bear caseQuarterly FCF down 81% y/y · $0 buybacks last quarter

CatalystsEarnings Wed Oct 28, 2026 (Yahoo calendar; confirm with IR) · Put expiry 2026-10-23 — before earnings

Options-flow proxy (no block/sweep feed): balanced tape, P/C vol 0.75 / OI 0.48; near $757 trigger: Oct 16 '26 $800C 13,462 vol vs 20,290 OI; unusual V/OI>1: Oct 9 '26 $725C 8,493 vol / 2,055 OI; largest call OI Jan 15 '27 $750C (245,568); monitoring call volume above $757 trigger.

IMMX · Fib ladder · VP shelf · buy zone / stop / breakout. Click for full size.

Off-list paper Buys (7)

PANW · EXEL · IBIT · KEYS · ASX · ANET · BE

Sunday This-week freeze (frozen, unchanged; includes off-list names)

2. This week — eIBD Oct 5, 2026

Sunday paper · scored Fri Oct 2 close · Newest issue Monday October 5, 2026 (Vol 43 No 27) · Buy 8 · Hold 18 · Don’t-buy 27 · Frozen until next weekly · No Sunday Pages publish

TRIPLE 99 · ECO Comp·EPS·RS 99·99·99 IBD 50 #1 · Don't-buy — chase +11.4% vs 21.

Buy

Ticker · IBD	Printed pivot	Tag	Fri close	Trend · 9 / 21 / 50 / 200 %	Skim
PANW chart LeaderboardSOTD 9/2499 · 84 · 96	398.88	Buy	$403.24	Bullish +3.5 / +6.8 / +11.4 / +61.1	+1.1% over pivot (zone to 418.82) · vs21 +6.8% · RSI 63
NVDA chart SpotlightIBD 50Sector Leaders98 · 99 · 90	227.92	Buy	$233.95	Bullish +2.5 / +4.2 / +7.3 / +16.8	+2.6% over pivot (zone to 239.32) · vs21 +4.2% · RSI 63
SN chart Stocks to WatchIBD 50Big Cap 2099 · 94 · 95	176.00	Buy	$182.57	Bullish +2.5 / +3.9 / +4.1 / +35.3	+3.7% over pivot (zone to 184.80) · vs21 +3.9% · RSI 60
ERO chart Sector LeadersIBD 5099 · 99 · 96	36.85	Buy	$37.91	Bullish +3.3 / +5.1 / +10.3 / +26.1	+2.9% over pivot (zone to 38.69) · vs21 +5.1% · RSI 58
GH chart IBD 5071 · 16 · 93	176.58	Buy	$177.80	Bullish +0.8 / +2.7 / +7.5 / +43.5	+0.7% over pivot (zone to 185.41) · vs21 +2.7% · RSI 58
EXEL chart IBD 50SOTD 9/498 · 95 · 88	57.57	Buy	$58.39	Bullish +0.5 / +1.5 / +4.6 / +19.0	+1.4% over pivot (zone to 60.45) · vs21 +1.5% · RSI 56
IBIT chart SOTD 9/21	46.37	Buy	$47.73	Bullish +0.9 / +3.8 / +13.7 / +13.9	+2.9% over pivot (zone to 48.69) · vs21 +3.8% · RSI 64
XP chart SOTD 9/17	20.75	Buy	$21.50	Bullish +3.4 / +6.9 / +17.5 / +19.0	+3.6% over pivot (zone to 21.79) · vs21 +6.9% · RSI 69

Hold

Ticker · IBD	Printed pivot	Tag	Fri close	Trend · 9 / 21 / 50 / 200 %	Skim
MU chart Stocks to WatchIBD 5096 · 84 · 94	1,016.44 (also 1,042.40 / 1,255.00)	Hold	$1,074.89	Bullish +1.1 / +4.4 / +12.4 / +57.7	past zone (+5.8%) — wait for pullback · vs21 +4.4% · RSI 59
APH chart Sector LeadersIBD 50SOTD 9/2998 · 98 · 83	88.17	Hold	$86.96	Bullish +3.3 / +5.4 / +7.3 / +17.6	-1.4% under pivot · holds 21 · vs21 +5.4% · RSI 64
ZBRA chart SpotlightBig Cap 2099 · 90 · 95	386.23	Hold	$375.86	Bullish +1.6 / +3.8 / +7.1 / +40.7	-2.7% under pivot · holds 21 · vs21 +3.8% · RSI 64
ANET chart Sector LeadersIBD 5098 · 96 · 95	214.89	Hold	$207.35	Bullish +1.6 / +3.4 / +7.2 / +30.5	-3.5% under pivot · holds 21 · vs21 +3.4% · RSI 60
MSFT chart IBD 50Big Cap 20SOTD 9/2599 · 93 · 85	517.78	Hold	$517.53	Bullish +1.6 / +2.9 / +6.2 / +19.9	-0.05% under pivot · holds 21 · vs21 +2.9% · RSI 63
PLTR chart Sector LeadersIBD 50Big Cap 2099 · 99 · 82	188.37	Hold	$188.75	Bullish +0.9 / +3.6 / +11.2 / +24.1	Hold the Jan-28 $200 call / do not add stock · vs21 +3.6% · RSI 61
FROG chart Spotlight98 · 95 · 92	99.22	Hold	$95.50	Bullish +1.9 / +3.2 / +6.4 / +39.6	-3.7% under pivot · holds 21 · vs21 +3.2% · RSI 55
GCT chart IBD 5099 · 95 · 95	55.60	Hold	$53.75	Bullish +1.9 / +3.0 / +7.3 / +27.4	-3.3% under pivot · holds 21 · vs21 +3.0% · RSI 58
MGNI chart IBD 5096 · 89 · 93	25.45	Hold	$24.73	Hold -0.1 / +1.4 / +5.8 / +46.6	-2.8% under pivot · holds 21 · vs21 +1.4% · RSI 54
AAPL chart SOTD 9/10	344.57	Hold	$333.69	Hold -0.0 / +0.8 / +3.5 / +15.5	-3.2% under pivot · holds 21 · vs21 +0.8% · RSI 55

Hold paper-extended (no chase, wait for a new base / pullback): SMCI 43.69 / 42.31 (Sector Leaders, Big Cap 20 99 · 99 · 90; +3% over · vs21 +8.7% · RSI 63); FTNT 180.95 / 172.09 (Tech Leaders, Big Cap 20 99 · 96 · 97; +5% over · vs21 +5.2% · RSI 64); NET 349.07 / 332.22 (Tech Leaders, IBD 50, Big Cap 20 99 · 96 · 97; +5% over · vs21 +4.4% · RSI 60); DHT 23.68 / 20.55 (Spotlight 99 · 98 · 96; +15% over · vs21 +8.2% · RSI 71); LPG 57.21 / 48.12 (Spotlight 99 · 98 · 98; +19% over · vs21 +5.1% · RSI 64); TNK 103.10 / 83.99 (Spotlight, IBD 50 99 · 86 · 98; +23% over · vs21 +7.1% · RSI 70); INSW 115.81 / 92.66 (Spotlight 98 · 87 · 98; +25% over · vs21 +9.1% · RSI 73); QRVO 114.17 / 99.15 (Spotlight 98 · 93 · 92; +15% over · vs21 +1.7% · RSI 56).

Don’t buy: ARW 242.01 / 237.33 (thru upper BB); SNOW 341.04 / 341.95 (Banks skip — no Buy, no puts); TGT 156.00 (no printed pivot · under 21 (-0.9%)); KEYS 384.64 / 366.41 (chase +10.1% vs 21 · thru upper BB); MPC 422.33 (no printed pivot · paper-extended); AVT 106.94 / 99.92 (thru upper BB · paper-extended); NTAP 226.27 / 199.62 (chase +12.6% vs 21 · thru upper BB); SLAB 222.76 (no printed pivot · thru upper BB); SHIP 17.82 (no printed pivot); FRO 52.74 / 43.10 (chase +10.6% vs 21); IMOS 83.30 / 78.35 (chase +26.5% vs 21 · thru upper BB); ATEYY 255.19 / 240.89 (chase +16.9% vs 21 · thru upper BB); ASX 47.45 / 45.52 (chase +11.9% vs 21); CLS 387.32 / 378.99 (chase +11.0% vs 21); PAYS 14.23 (no printed pivot · thru upper BB); SITM 709.44 / 680.60 (chase +11.9% vs 21 · thru upper BB); TSM 472.78 / 479.00 (thru upper BB); TER 449.04 / 444.17 (chase +15.5% vs 21 · thru upper BB); 99·99·99 ECO 87.28 / 56.67 (chase +11.4% vs 21); HPE 69.33 / 63.44 (chase +14.1% vs 21 · thru upper BB); META 728.08 (no printed pivot); HOOD 112.74 / 112.45 (lost 21 (-1.2%)). Tech Leaders (ratings 10/02): only FTNT / NET hold the tape (paper-extended Holds); TWLO OKTA P CRWD NTAP SMTC chase / extended / no pivot — not surfaced. Banks skip CRM SNOW NOW CRCL TEAM. Owned names (RSKD IQEPF TYOYY COHR PENG SPCX) never new Buys. APH not owned — no LEAPS Buy. Quiet sleeves silent.

Options (Mak+RSI, CBOE delayed): no qualifying put — every Buy/Hold RSI is above the 30–50 put band, so the RSI gate fails before any delta is needed (no chain delta used or invented) (RSI MU 59 · SN 60 · PANW 63 · FROG 55 · ZBRA 64 · DHT 71 · NVDA 63 · INSW 73 · TNK 70 · QRVO 56 · LPG 64 · APH 64 · ANET 60 · ERO 58 · SMCI 63 · GCT 58 · GH 58 · MGNI 54 · EXEL 56 · MSFT 63 · FTNT 64 · NET 60 · IBIT 64 · XP 69 · AAPL 55). PLTR: hold the Jan-28 $200 call, no put. No puts on Don’t-buy / Banks-skip.

Banks overlay (timing only): IGV 108.43 Bullish 8≥21 vs21 +2.5%; SMH 630.60 Bullish 8≥21 vs21 +6.8%; SOXX 588.90 Bullish 8≥21 vs21 +7.0%. Never a Buy.

Paper notes: MU pivot = IBD 50 trendline 1,016.44 (zone to 1,067) — Fri 1,074.89 just past; SOTD early 1,042.40 still in its zone — wait for a pullback. TSM under the 479 pivot and through the upper BB (IBD 50: cleared the 444.29 zone). ARW (SOTD 10/2) is in the printed 237.33–249.20 zone but poked through the upper BB — Don’t-buy for now. HPE: issue prints 63.44 (exits zone). META: no numeric pivot printed. Charts: IMMX, Fri Oct 2 bars.

3. Today — Thursday Oct 8 (Wed Oct 7 tape)

Thursday · Wed Oct 7 close · Today Buys NVDA / MSFT. Holds MU / AAPL / PLTR / TSM · PLTR Hold call only. MSFT back under the upper BB inside its 517.78–543.67 zone → Buy · NVDA still in 227.92 zone → Buy · MU 1088.0 past the 1,067 zone top → Hold (no chase) · TSM slipped under 479 → Hold (earnings Oct 15; Sept sales out early Thu) · SOTD 10/7 AAPL cup 344.57 / early 338.67 — Wed 336.67 under both → Hold · HOOD still under 21 → Don't-buy · Oct 8 SOTD not yet printed. Focus universe only.

Morning sector (timing only): Thu morning (Wed Oct 7 close): IGV still leads 5d RS (+1.24 pp vs SPY) but fell -1.19% Wed; SMH keeps 20d lead (+6.89 pp) after -1.18% Wed; XLE +1.61% pre-market (energy bid); XLI -2.18% Wed; XBI lags (5d -4.72%). Pre-market soft (SPY ≈-0.54%, QQQ ≈-0.77%, SMH ≈-1.72% incomplete) — timing only, not Buys.

NVDA Buy

NVIDIA · large

Buy · in zone above 227.92 · holds 21 · not extended · vol soft · RSI mid

Stock Spotlight · IBD 50 · pivot 227.92

Kill: daily close under 21

MSFT Buy

Microsoft · large

Buy · in zone above 517.78 · holds 21 · not extended · vol soft · RSI mid

SOTD 9/25 · IBD 50 · pivot 517.78

Kill: daily close under 21

Ticker	Tag	Wed close	Trend	9 / 21 / 50 / 200	Kill / note
NVDA	Buy	$237.47	Bullish	+1.8% / +4.1% / +7.7% / +17.9%	open paper, through 227.92 [zone to 239.32, +4.2% above pivot], holds 21 (+4.12%), 200 rising, not through upper BB, not chase, vol 0.68×
MSFT	Buy	$529.76	Bullish	+2.1% / +4.1% / +6.8% / +22.6%	open paper, through 517.78 (SOTD; short consolidation) [zone to 543.67, +2.3% above pivot], holds 21 (+4.06%), 200 rising, not through upper BB, not chase, vol 0.61×
MU	Hold	$1,088.00	Bullish	+2.1% / +4.7% / +12.5% / +56.8%	past buy zone (1016.44 → 1067.26; close 1088.0, +7.0%) — holds 21 (+4.73%), 200 rising — no chase Buy; vol 1.03×
AAPL	Hold	$336.67	Bullish	+0.7% / +1.4% / +4.5% / +16.2%	holds 21 / 200 rising; still under printed 344.57 (336.67) — Hold wait, not Buy
PLTR	Hold	$194.12	Bullish	+2.4% / +5.1% / +11.7% / +27.5%	Hold the Jan-28 $200 call / do not add stock
TSM	Hold	$472.20	Bullish	+1.2% / +4.4% / +10.1% / +21.6%	holds 21 / 200 rising; still under printed 479.0 (472.2) — Hold wait, not Buy

Don’t buy: META 721.31 (no printed buy point — never Buy (table dump / unnumbered); holds 21 (+2.44%), 200 rising,). SOTD 9/23 PLTR — Hold call only (never stock Buy). RSKD owned — not a new Buy idea.

Banks overlay (timing only): IGV 109.84 Bullish 8≥21 vs21 +2.75% 200↑=Y HH/HL; SMH 625.03 Bullish 8≥21 vs21 +4.08% 200↑=Y mix; SOXX 582.82 Bullish 8≥21 vs21 +4.13% 200↑=Y HH/HL Timing only — never a Buy. Do not SMS a rotation flag.

Owned sleeve note: PENG (owned) surfaced — 72.61 holds 21 (+27.1%) on vol 9.06× (DDR watch trigger: 21 hold + vol≥1×). Owned — not a new Buy; extended vs 21, no add. No SMS.

X tape fold-in

Curated tape for NVDA, MSFT, PLTR, RSKD, PENG only. Papers still pick names — X never mints a Buy. No FinTwit darling lists. Mag7 quote stubs are not X tape.

Thu morning (Wed Oct 7 close): IGV still leads 5d RS (+1.24 pp vs SPY) but fell -1.19% Wed; SMH keeps 20d lead (+6.89 pp) after -1.18% Wed; XLE +1.61% pre-market (energy bid); XLI -2.18% Wed; XBI lags (5d -4.72%). Pre-market soft (SPY ≈-0.54%, QQQ ≈-0.77%, SMH ≈-1.72% incomplete) — timing only, not Buys.
Paper Buys this pass: NVDA / MSFT (focus) · off-list PANW / EXEL / IBIT / KEYS / ASX / ANET / BE — papers still mint; X never mints.
SOTD 10/7 AAPL cup 344.57 / early 338.67 — Wed 336.67 Hold. SOTD 10/5 TSM 479 — Wed 472.2 Hold (slipped under the pivot). MU 1088.0 Hold (+7% past 1,016.44, past zone).
PLTR — Hold Jan-28 $200 call only / no stock add. PENG (owned) follow-through: 72.61 on 9.06× vol, +27.1% vs 21, through upper BB, RSI 74.69 — extended, no add; covered-call check on the PENG card.

X direct thin — sector scan + public SOTD + Yahoo tape. X never mints Buys.

4. Options

Mak + RSI overlay: puts only on Buy/Hold when delta prints 0.15–0.25 and RSI 30–50; covered calls when RSI ≥ 70 on shares owned. Deltas come from the CBOE delayed chain on each Snapshot card.
Today Buys NVDA / MSFT: RSI NVDA 64.41 / MSFT 68.21 (Wed) — CSP only where the card says Qualifies.
CSP week: No name passes Mak+RSI (Buy/Hold + RSI 30–50) · SPCX acquisition 10-30 $141P @ 0.74
PLTR: Hold Jan-28 $200 call / do not add stock. RSI 66.16.
Per-name CSP / bull put spread: see each Snapshot card (CBOE delayed, Mak+RSI rule; CSP cash > $15k flagged vs $12–15k IBKR plan).
RSKD: owned 500 @ $6.95 — book only; do not pitch as new Buy.

5. Barron’s / MarketWatch / IBD

Thu Oct 8 — tape = Wed Oct 7 close. Dow Jones signed-in browser not pulled this pass; public IBD SOTD hub + article box OK; IBD market columns paywalled (no new printed pivots pulled); Barron's/MarketWatch not pulled this pass. No invented ratings.
Paper source this week: Sunday eIBD Oct 4 read (issue Mon Oct 5 · 53 names) + carries + SOTD 10/5 TSM + SOTD 10/6 CORT + SOTD 10/7 AAPL. Buys there (Wed close): NVDA · MSFT · PANW · EXEL · IBIT · KEYS · ASX · ANET · BE.
IBD SOTD 10/6 CORT (Corcept) — flat base 126.83 entry · early 122.81 · Comp 80 · group 62/197. Wed 119.6 → Hold (still under both entries; off-list).
IBD SOTD 10/5 TSM — breaking into buy zone above 479 cup base · Comp 99 · group 7/197. Wed 472.2 → Hold (holds 21 / 200 rising; still under printed 479.0 (472.2) — Hold wait, not Buy).
SOTD 10/2 ARW — 237.33 (zone to 249.20) · 98/84/96. Wed 232.0 → Hold (off-list).
SOTD 10/1 META — handle; numeric BP not printed → never Buy. SOTD 9/30 HPE — eIBD 63.44, extended. SOTD 9/29 APH 88.17 — not owned.
MU trendline 1,016.44 — Wed 1088.0 Hold. NVDA 227.92 — Wed 237.47 Buy.
IBD SOTD 10/7 AAPL (Apple, Patrick Seitz) — cup 344.57 buy point · early entry 338.67 (Wed high) · Comp 96 · group 23/197. Wed 336.67 → Hold (under both; core name).
MSFT SOTD 9/25 handle 517.78 — Wed 529.76 Buy (back under the upper BB, inside zone to 543.67).
Oct 8 SOTD: not yet printed (Thu ~5:00am MT) — placeholder row in ibd-sotd.md. IBD Big Picture / Stock Market Today / Dow Jones futures columns paywalled past the teaser (headline: "Apple, Micron Eye Buy Points"; futures little changed overnight, TSMC Sept sales due early Thu) — no new printed pivots pulled.
Do not mint Buys from table dumps without printed pivot. RSKD owned — never new Buy pitch.

Infra carry (frozen Fri Sep 25; triggers unfired; includes off-list names)

7. Infra Watch

Physical/supply-chain infrastructure bottlenecks as standing research positions (energy, robotics, AI infra). Not stock picks. Not portfolio sleeve tracking — see 5. Bottlenecks for held photonics/foundry/MLCC caps. Papers + 21 still gate any add.

Methodology (T1/T2/T3)

T1 = regulatory filing / national-lab or government data / company disclosure / peer-reviewed paper. T2 = named trade press or named analyst-firm research. T3 = aggregator/general commentary — narrative only, never sole support for a number. SEO content-mill sites that repackage T1/T2 with no new reporting or named methodology are excluded on sight. Every number carries its publication date, not today’s date.

Grid equipment, not chips OPEN

Constraint: turbine/transformer lead times and interconnection queues, not HBM/DRAM. Silicon 18–24 months; grid equipment 3–7 years.

Tier	Dated evidence
T1	GE Vernova Q2’26 (2026-07-22): gas equipment backlog + slot reservations 116 GW (100 GW Q1’26; 80 GW guided YE 2025, actual 83). Booking 2031 slots now. 53 GW firm / 63 GW slots.
T2	Power Magazine 2026-01-02 (Wood Mackenzie): large power transformer lead times 128–144 weeks.
T1	LBNL Queued Up 2026 (2026-06): 2,061 GW gen/storage in US queues; median IR→COD >5 years (projects built 2025); 13% of 2000–2020 requests at COD by end-2025.
T2	TrendForce 2026-08-04: HBM/DRAM tightness projected to ease by 2027.

Exposure (mapping, not a rec): beneficiary GEV ETN VRT (backlog pricing / behind-the-meter). AI-compute names are constraint-exposed if the buildout assumes power arrives on the chip schedule. Not a Buy. House rail still papers + 21.

Trigger: GEV Q3 2026 earnings (October) — does the 2032 booking window open on schedule, or stall. Last checked 2026-08-30.

Magnet chokepoint OPEN

Constraint: refining/sintering (~China), not mining. Non-China magnet capacity does not matter until after 2028.

Tier	Dated evidence
T2	EU Parliament research service 2025-11-24: ~90% of refining/sintering capacity concentrated in China.
T1	USGS 2025-01: China ~69% of a diversifying ~390,000-ton global REO mine base.
T1	MOFCOM Announcement 70 (2025-11-07): 0.1% extraterritorial magnet license (Notice 61) suspended only until 2026-11-10. Suspension ≠ withdrawal.
T1	MP Materials 10X (DoD 8-K / company 2026): $110/kg NdPr floor; 10-year 100% offtake; commission 2028; ~10,000 mt/yr — small vs EV/wind + any humanoid case.

Exposure (mapping, not a rec): beneficiary MP (price-floor, DoD offtake). Offshore-wind / humanoid-robotics names are constraint-exposed until non-China sintering scales past 2028. Not a Buy.

Trigger: 2026-11-10 — China lets the 0.1% rule lapse, or reinstates. Binary. Last checked 2026-08-30.

Research framing for personal tracking, not investment advice.

Yahoo failures: see scores/meta.json. No invented delta. Thu Oct 8 ~5:30am MT publish. NO SMS (locked 2026-09-21).

Thu Oct 8: Buys NVDA $237.47 / MSFT $529.76 (Wed Oct 7 close). PLTR Jan-28 $200 call / no stock add. RSKD owned book only. Focus universe: /workspace/watchlists/core_universe.json.