Invest brief · Wednesday Sep 2, 2026 · VOL 43 NO 22

Today = weekday tape on last complete US session Tue Sep 1 (open 7:30am MT). This week = Sunday eIBD, frozen. No invented OHLC or delta.

O’Neil sell: thesis break or lost 21-EMA / failed pivot. A red day is not a sell by itself. Tags are Keep / Trim / Watch / Exit on names already in the book; Buy / Hold / Don’t-buy on new paper ideas. Bullish is not a Buy.

1. Book

Fidelity + second Roth + IB as of Sat Aug 22. Yahoo daily through Tue Sep 1 (TW names: last complete local session). O’Neil: Keep if holding the 21 and thesis intact; Watch if below 21 or 200 EMA not rising. No add on SIVEF MRAAY TYOYY SILC FOCI ShunSin XFAB IQEPF LPKFF SPCX NVT COHR CBRS. APH/GOOG are not owned LEAPS (quotes only); APH Yahoo bar is stale (2026-07-17) — data gap; later APH stock buy still needs a held 21 reclaim + paper.

Keep

NameWhere / sizeActionPriceTrend9 / 21 / 50 / 200Note
SPCXTax 10 + Roth 15 = 25Keep$142.23Hold+1.4% / +3.7% / +4.2% / n/aholds 21 (+3.67%), 18d, 200 SMA n/a. Acquisition sleeve. Sep-18 125 CSP stays Keep. No add.
IQEPFIRA 2,000Keep$0.63Hold−1.1% / +0.7% / +5.4% / +60.0%holds 21, 200 rising, vol 0.51×. Constraint sleeve. No add.
3363.TWO FOCIIB 90KeepTWD 780Bullish+10.5% / +19.4% / +31.5% / +32.0%TW session. Holds 21 but extended (+19.4% vs 21) — no add. Book complete.
6451.TW ShunSinIB 99KeepTWD 500Bullish+9.9% / +12.7% / +9.6% / +45.7%holds 21 (+12.74%), 200 rising. No new IB size.
SPAXX / FDRXX~Tax $45.7k + IRA $1.8k + Roth2 $12.6k + HSA FDRXX $0.36kKeepcashDry powder. Do not force deploy. Margin debit −$3,250 — do not add margin risk.

Watch / no add

NameWhere / sizeActionPriceTrend9 / 21 / 50 / 200Note
METARoth2 4Watch$578.54Hold+1.2% / +0.5% / −2.3% / −6.9%1d reclaim of 21 (+0.50%) but 200 EMA not rising — Watch / no add (not Keep). RSI 49.95.
SILCTax 80 + IRA 60 + Roth 60 + Roth2 10 = 210Watch$40.06Hold−7.9% / −8.1% / −6.6% / +37.6%Still below 21 $43.61. No add. Covered-call RSI 44.43 — not 70+.
INODIRA 100Watch$54.64Bearish−6.2% / −10.0% / −16.4% / −10.1%below 21, 200 not rising. No add.
SIVEFTax 2,000Watch$2.51Hold−22.0% / −30.4% / −42.0% / n/athin OTC. Below 21. No add.
MRAAYRoth 100Watch$22.12Hold−2.5% / −5.5% / −16.5% / +26.4%below 21. Murata ADR. No add.
TYOYYTax 100 + Roth 125Watch$14.00Hold−4.1% / −10.6% / −28.1% / +17.9%below 21. No add.
LPKFFIRA 100Watch$14.99Hold−3.7% / −8.5% / −20.9% / +3.6%below 21. No add.
INTCTax 10Watch$88.97Hold−1.8% / −5.1% / −13.6% / +21.4%below 21. Keep size. No add.
NVTHSA 20 + IB 10 = 30Watch$147.30Hold−4.4% / −6.2% / −7.3% / +9.7%below 21. No add. No new IB size.
VPGHSA 20Watch$60.45Bearish−6.5% / −15.9% / −36.8% / −10.8%below 21, 200 not rising. Keep size.
CBRSIRA 5 + IB 3 = 8Watch$172.62Hold−8.4% / −13.5% / −14.9% / n/abelow 21. No add.
COHRRoth 5Watch$272.03Bearish−5.2% / −8.6% / −13.5% / −0.9%below 21. Crowded optics. No add.
XFABTax 400 (FR)Watch€5.86Bearish−3.8% / −7.9% / −16.9% / −6.8%below 21. No add.
PLTR Jan-28 200 call ×2TaxableTrim size / Hold$179.92Bullish+0.0% / +5.4% / +23.1% / +18.9%Hold the Jan-28 200 call. Do not add stock. Kill: daily close under 21 near 170.76. RSI 61.92.
SMR / AMSC / MSTR / GFSin bookWatchAlready in book. No add.

No new / exit-path — do not average

NameWhere / sizeActionNote
CONL MSTX OKLL BMNU BMNR QCML VELL CRCG AXTX AAOXlevered / 2×Exit-pathNo new capital. Do not average.
AREC TE UAMY TSSI ASPN IMMR NBspec microsExit-pathTE also Roth2 500 + Jan-28 $7 ×2. Do not average.
CDNG EUV CCXITax 100 / 100 / 200Exit-pathNo new capital / spec.
CIFR Mar-28 20 ×1Roth callExit-pathTue $14.61 · 21 $17.05 (−14.3%) Bearish. Don’t-buy paper + lottery call. Do not average.
CXDO SWKS FISV NASA NXT NNE BULL SERV APTVdead / near-dead long callsExit-pathWatch/exit-path, not new buys.

Other long lottery calls still in the book (Watch/exit-path, not new buys): IBIT, RXRX, SOFI, EOSE, PATH, SYM, SMR Jan-28, AISP, XLU, ENVX, IDN, LTBR, SECZ, ADEA, LTRX, SDGR, ZTS, DT, KEEL, LAES, QXO, RDW, KTOS, RBBN, DRAM Jan-28 50, TE Jan-28 7.

2. This week — eIBD Aug 31 · VOL 43 NO 22

Sunday paper · scored Fri Aug 28 · “Investors Prepare For Act Two.” Frozen until next weekly. Weekday 6:50 does not rewrite this block — it updates Today. No Sunday Pages publish.

TickerPaperTagFri closeTrend9 / 21 / 50 / 200Kill / note
SHIPSpotlight cup 16.86 / alt 18.48 · 97/99/93 C-Buy$17.79Bullish+2.2% / +4.7% / +12.7% / +35.9%holds 21 $16.99, 200 rising, under BB 18.30, vol 0.93×, RSI 59.76. Kill: close under $16.99 or fail 16.86.
SHOPCover STW / Big Cap 20 C&H 158.87Hold$152.90Bullish+1.3% / +5.0% / +16.9% / +16.3%under 158.87 — wait pivot; 19d hold / 200 rising; vol 0.54×
FROGCover/Spotlight C&H 98.47 (range to 103.39)Hold$98.74Bullish+4.4% / +8.2% / +12.4% / +52.2%through pivot; Fri reversed H 105.76 → L 98.01 — no chase
NVDASpotlight handle 227.92 · Acc/Dis D-Hold$217.55Bullish+0.1% / +1.0% / +4.4% / +11.2%under 227.92; A6 Fri print matches Yahoo; 2d hold / 200 rising
FIVEone-pager C&H 249Hold$241.89Hold-2.2% / +1.4% / +13.8% / +17.5%broke out Mon, backtracked. 36d hold / 200 rising. Q2 Wed.
PLTRextended from 163.70 cup · 8/29 high-handle 182.44Hold$186.29Bullish+4.5% / +10.8% / +29.6% / +23.1%Hold Jan-28 $200 call / do not add stock. Trim size only.
NEMNew America consol 134.88Hold$127.98Bullish+0.1% / +6.9% / +22.6% / +19.3%near 128; under 134.88 — Hold wait
WPMDB 154.17 (zone to 161.88)Hold$153.33Bullish+0.8% / +8.5% / +25.1% / +20.0%high 160.46 tagged zone then faded — under
WDAYCover aggressive alt 202.76Hold$204.72Bullish+4.7% / +10.3% / +30.1% / +27.3%through alt but +10.3% vs 21 (chase) — no add
MSFTSOTD/cover alt 513.73 / cup 466.32Hold$513.53Bullish+3.6% / +7.0% / +19.4% / +19.6%close under 513.73; through upper BB 511.10; paper extended
AUSector Leaders DB 113.30Hold$113.19Hold-0.3% / +8.4% / +27.1% / +22.5%close 113.19 still under; high 119.19 reversed
TWLOBig Cap 20 238.48Hold$237.78Bullish+2.9% / +5.6% / +12.7% / +48.1%close 237.78 still under — wait
IBKRflat-base 97.84Hold$95.84Bullish+1.3% / +3.1% / +4.0% / +22.6%close 95.84 under; vol 0.49× — wait
ANETalt 189.82Hold$195.38Bullish+0.3% / +2.2% / +8.3% / +29.9%through alt, +2.2% vs 21, but vol 0.39× Acc/Dis D+ — not house Buy

Don’t buy: ZS (200 not rising); OKTA (+14.6% vs 21); ETON (paper extended); HNGE (Acc/Dis E under 91.50). Banks skip CRM SNOW NOW CRCL TEAM. I&T: no setup. No delta printed → no puts. Quiet sleeves silent.

3. Today — Wednesday Sep 2 tape

Weekday tape · last complete Tue Sep 1 · Markets open 7:30am MT. Only house Buy is SHIP. SHOP / IBKR / ANET lost the 21 → Don’t-buy today (frozen This week stays Hold). New STW pivots UBS/SCCO = Hold wait; BAC lost 21; Barron’s SOLS Hold (200 not rising). Tech Leaders table = no pivots → not Buys. TEAM is Banks skip.

SHIP Buy SMID · Spotlight 97 / 99 / 93 C-

Seanergy Maritime · 1–2 year SMID sleeve

Tue $18.01 (O 17.70 H 18.17 L 17.42 V 274,400) · Trend Bullish · 9 $17.51 (+2.84%) · 21 $17.07 (+5.49%) · 50 $15.85 (+13.63%) · 200 SMA $13.14 (+37.11%) · 13d hold · vol 1.04× · RSI 61.5

Still through printed Spotlight cup 16.86, holds the 21, 200 EMA rising, under upper BB 18.24. Not a chase vs 21 (+5.49%). Only name that still clears open paper + 21 hold + rising 200 + not extended. SMID first. Dry bulk, not IGV.

Kill: daily close under 21-EMA ~$17.07, or a fail of $16.86. Banks: IGV ON (timing only); SMH/SOXX OFF. SHIP is dry bulk, not IGV.

SHIP chart (Tue Sep 1 tape)

SHOP lost the 21 (Tue $139.82 vs21 −3.33%, Trend Hold, RSI 47.67) → Don’t-buy today. Frozen This week still shows Hold. Wait a real reclaim of ~144.64; printed pivot 158.87 still ahead. Not a Hold card on Today.

Tickervs Fri / MonTagTue closevs 21Kill / note
SHIP$17.79 → $18.01Buy$18.01+5.49%still the only house Buy; kill under 21 ~17.07 or fail 16.86
SHOP$152.90 → $139.82Don’t-buy$139.82−3.33%lost 21; frozen week stays Hold
FROG$98.74 → $91.78Hold$91.78+0.44%under printed 98.47; wait, not Buy
NVDA$217.55 → $217.44Hold$217.44+0.62%under 227.92
FIVE$241.89 → $245.08Hold$245.08+2.35%under 249; 37d hold
PLTR$186.29 → $179.92Hold$179.92+5.37%Hold Jan-28 $200 call / do not add stock. RSI 61.92
IBKR$95.84 → $90.39Don’t-buy$90.39−2.55%lost 21
ANET$195.38 → $189.26Don’t-buy$189.26−0.94%lost 21
WPMSTW 154.17Hold$144.93+2.46%standing Hold; retreated under pivot
UBSSTW 55.15 newHold$54.14+0.86%under pivot; holds 21 — wait, not Buy
SCCOSTW 219.04 newHold$201.61+0.74%under pivot; holds 21 — wait, not Buy
SOLSBarron’s Buy 9/1Hold$61.73+3.23%200 EMA not rising — not house Buy
BACSTW 55.40 newDon’t-buy$61.99−0.60%lost 21
META1d reclaimWatch$578.54+0.50%200 EMA not rising; no add
SILCstill below 21Watch$40.06−8.13%owned — no add
CXWHold$32.72+0.02%SMID Comp 99; not a Spotlight Buy
PLTR Hold Jan-28 200 call

$179.92 · vs 21 +5.37% · no stock add

PLTR chart
CXW Hold SMID Comp 99

$32.72 · vs 21 +0.02% · no fresh chase

CXW chart

Don’t buy: SHOP 139.82 lost 21 (−3.33%); IBKR 90.39 lost 21; ANET 189.26 lost 21; BAC 61.99 STW 55.40 lost 21 (−0.60%); ZS 178.37 holds 21 but not a Buy; OKTA 166.43 vs21 +12.79% extended; ETON/HNGE; Barron’s MAR 334.55 / BCO 110.02 / FCFS 215.56 / FWONK 96.95 (all below 21 or not house Buy). Banks skip CRM SNOW NOW CRCL TEAM. Tech Leaders table dump (RNG OKTA HALO PANW FTNT PATH KARO QLYS PAYC INCY HRMY EXEL VEEV DT ETON) — no printed pivots → not Buys.

Banks overlay (timing only): IGV 106.18 8>21 HH+HL — software ON. SMH 545.22 8<21 (−3.43%) — semis OFF. SOXX 500.31 8<21 (−4.34%). Do not SMS a rotation flag.

Quiet sleeves: PENG 47.59 vs 21 54.13 (−12.09%) vol 0.78× — silent DDR watch, no SMS. 1.6T / DC cooling silent. Smart Candle under-21: RKLB 62.54 (−12.0%) Bearish; AAOI 103.39 (−12.5%); JBL 299.14 (−7.4%); GLW 145.56 (−5.7%); LITE 868.95 (+0.07%) holds 21 but crowded / no paper Buy.

4. Options

5. Barron’s / MarketWatch

6. Bottlenecks (skip held sleeve)

Photonics / MLCC / foundry sleeve already held — no new on SIVEF MRAAY TYOYY SILC FOCI ShunSin XFAB IQEPF LPKFF. PENG DDR cascade scored; quiet today.

7. Infra Watch

Physical/supply-chain infrastructure bottlenecks as standing research positions (energy, robotics, AI infra). Not stock picks. Not portfolio sleeve tracking — see 5. Bottlenecks for held photonics/foundry/MLCC caps. Papers + 21 still gate any add.

Methodology (T1/T2/T3)

T1 = regulatory filing / national-lab or government data / company disclosure / peer-reviewed paper. T2 = named trade press or named analyst-firm research. T3 = aggregator/general commentary — narrative only, never sole support for a number. SEO content-mill sites that repackage T1/T2 with no new reporting or named methodology are excluded on sight. Every number carries its publication date, not today’s date.

Grid equipment, not chips OPEN

Constraint: turbine/transformer lead times and interconnection queues, not HBM/DRAM. Silicon 18–24 months; grid equipment 3–7 years.

TierDated evidence
T1GE Vernova Q2’26 (2026-07-22): gas equipment backlog + slot reservations 116 GW (100 GW Q1’26; 80 GW guided YE 2025, actual 83). Booking 2031 slots now. 53 GW firm / 63 GW slots.
T2Power Magazine 2026-01-02 (Wood Mackenzie): large power transformer lead times 128–144 weeks.
T1LBNL Queued Up 2026 (2026-06): 2,061 GW gen/storage in US queues; median IR→COD >5 years (projects built 2025); 13% of 2000–2020 requests at COD by end-2025.
T2TrendForce 2026-08-04: HBM/DRAM tightness projected to ease by 2027.

Exposure (mapping, not a rec): beneficiary GEV ETN VRT (backlog pricing / behind-the-meter). AI-compute names are constraint-exposed if the buildout assumes power arrives on the chip schedule. Not a Buy. House rail still papers + 21.

Trigger: GEV Q3 2026 earnings (October) — does the 2032 booking window open on schedule, or stall. Last checked 2026-08-30.

Magnet chokepoint OPEN

Constraint: refining/sintering (~China), not mining. Non-China magnet capacity does not matter until after 2028.

TierDated evidence
T2EU Parliament research service 2025-11-24: ~90% of refining/sintering capacity concentrated in China.
T1USGS 2025-01: China ~69% of a diversifying ~390,000-ton global REO mine base.
T1MOFCOM Announcement 70 (2025-11-07): 0.1% extraterritorial magnet license (Notice 61) suspended only until 2026-11-10. Suspension ≠ withdrawal.
T1MP Materials 10X (DoD 8-K / company 2026): $110/kg NdPr floor; 10-year 100% offtake; commission 2028; ~10,000 mt/yr — small vs EV/wind + any humanoid case.

Exposure (mapping, not a rec): beneficiary MP (price-floor, DoD offtake). Offshore-wind / humanoid-robotics names are constraint-exposed until non-China sintering scales past 2028. Not a Buy.

Trigger: 2026-11-10 — China lets the 0.1% rule lapse, or reinstates. Binary. Last checked 2026-08-30.

Research framing for personal tracking, not investment advice.

Yahoo failures this pass: none on scored names. Options probe skipped (no invented delta). BB threshold fixed to close≥upper / bb_pos≥1.95. Deployed to invest-brief only when wrangler succeeds.

Wed Sep 2 addenda: Barron’s NEW SOLS 9/1 Hold (200 not rising); STW 9/2 UBS/SCCO Hold wait, BAC Don’t-buy; carry MAR BCO FCFS FWONK AEP. MW not scanned. APH bar stale 2026-07-17 (data gap). Options probe skipped (no invented delta).